3 accounts bet $14.6K that the US and Iran will reach a nuclear agreement this month

By: theblockbeats.news|2026/04/09 14:08:01

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 accounts have invested $14.6k in "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear agreement this month?" with the current probability of "Yes" being 15%.

Among these 3 accounts, 0x162f6fff has a 62% win rate in the geopolitics category, with a total profit of $28k; denizz has a 68% win rate in the geopolitics category, with a total profit of $744k; RememberAmalek has a 73% win rate in the geopolitics category, with a total profit of $218k.

In the interim ceasefire public terms reached yesterday, the current consensus mainly focuses on halting both-way military air bombardments and establishing a framework for subsequent face-to-face negotiations, with neither party including issues such as limiting uranium enrichment levels or restarting nuclear facility inspections in the terms of this temporary truce.

Regarding more complex nuclear issues, the US side tends to view them as topics for future long-term agreement negotiations to be held in Islamabad and has not made them a priority prerequisite to be resolved in the short-term military ceasefire mediation.

Trump's latest strong statement clearly states "there will be no uranium enrichment activity" and indicates that the US will "collaborate with Iran to excavate and remove" buried highly enriched uranium stockpiles. The Iranian Parliament Speaker and the Supreme National Security Council emphasized that the 10-point plan explicitly includes "accepting enrichment rights" and stated that any unilateral restrictions on uranium enrichment or surrendering of stockpiles are "unacceptable."

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, and there is a behavior of taking profits or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0x162f6fff88a52864f2ecc9833e58089d5254798d
0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73
0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a

Total Invested: $14.6k
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