Analysis: The profitability of long-term BTC holders has plummeted to 3%, and the market bottom signal has not yet been triggered

By: rootdata|2026/03/30 16:02:12
0
Share
copy

According to on-chain analyst MorenoDV_ (@MorenoDV_) in a post on CryptoQuant, the long-term holder (LTH) adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) is approaching a critical turning point, but market bottom signals have not yet been triggered.

Since the peak on October 6, 2025, LTH profitability has sharply compressed from 58% to 3% over 142 days, reflecting a significant deterioration in investor sentiment and holding structure. However, LTH-NUPL is currently still slightly above zero and has not entered the comprehensive liquidation range necessary for historically forming market bottoms. The analyst points out that true market bottoms in history have formed after LTH holdings have fully turned into losses; the current environment is closer to the late-cycle pressure phase rather than complete liquidation. It is recommended to focus on signals where LTH-NUPL continues to fall below zero, accompanied by long-term compression of price and volatility, as this condition has historically aligned closely with asymmetric entry opportunities.

You may also like

Meet the new WEEX trial fund—your gateway to greater profits

Discover WEEX's new trial fund and trade with less risk. Use them to offset transaction fees, funding fees, and trading losses. Kickoff your trading journey with WEEX!

WEEX Labs Lands at Dutch Blockchain Week: A Disruptive Crypto × AI Conversation Sets Sail in Amsterdam

WEEX Labs lands in Amsterdam for Dutch Blockchain Week with Agentic Day: The AI Infrastructure Economy — featuring a Cointelegraph exclusive interview with Waqar Zaka, a live AI trading competition (no code required, just natural language), and a keynote from WEEX COO Andrew Weiner. June 22. Register now: https://luma.com/lo977l6h

SK Hynix Reportedly Plans U.S. ADR Listing as Early as August, With SEC Approval Possible in Late June

SK Hynix may pursue a U.S. ADR listing as early as August, with SEC approval reportedly possible in late June amid strong AI chip supply chain demand.

SpaceX vs Tesla vs xAI: Which Elon Musk Trade Has the Biggest Upside in 2026?

SpaceX's IPO is days away, Tesla holds over 11,000 BTC, and xAI is betting big on AI. Here's how traders are comparing the three biggest Musk narratives.

OpenAI Reveals It Has Confidentially Submitted an S-1 to the SEC, Keeping the Door Open for a Future IPO

On June 9, according to an OpenAI announcement, the company recently confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), beginning the preliminary compliance process for a potential initial public offering. OpenAI said it chose to disclose this proactively because it expected the news might leak; however, the company has not yet set a specific listing timeline, and related arrangements may still take some time.

Latest research from 13 top universities including Cornell University: The current state, challenges, and misconceptions of the fusion of Crypto and AI

The combination of AI and crypto is still in its early stages, with both serving as complementary "middleware": AI translates human intentions into executable programs, while cryptographic technology provides verifiable and tamper-proof guarantees for computational processes and results. In the dire...

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more
iconiconiconiconiconiconicon
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com