Analyst: Bitcoin Retests Key Support Level, Institutional Buying Pressure Key Variable

BlockBeats News, August 3rd, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that due to non-farm payroll data falling below expectations (73k vs. expected 110k), the Fed holding rates for the fifth consecutive time with internal disagreements, and escalating trade tensions, among other macro headwinds, the global market has shifted to a "risk-off" mode: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw their worst performance since April, U.S. bond yields dropped by nearly 20 basis points, and gold saw inflows.

Bitcoin faced pressure as well, quickly retracing from a high of $119,800 to $112,000, with a 30-day momentum decreasing to +3% and the ADX sliding to 36, indicating a weakening short-term bullish momentum. On-chain activity decreased, but exchange outflows still show ongoing accumulation in the market.

Despite intensified short-term volatility, the structural bullish thesis remains unchanged. Strategies and institutions added over 30k BTC to their holdings in the past week, the options market's Max Pain stayed stable at $118,000, with a dominance of bullish positions at higher strike prices. The SEC-initiated "Crypto Project" also holds promise to alleviate the industry's long-standing regulatory pressure.

If Bitcoin holds above the $110,000–$113,000 support and momentum rebounds to above 8%–10%, the market is likely to retest the $119,000–$122,000 range; if it drops below $110,000, a retracement to $105,000–$107,000 is feared. In the coming weeks, the tug of war between macro risks and institutional buying will determine the next phase direction.