Bitcoin Option Implied Volatility at 36.35%, Realized Volatility at 21.80%

The spot price of Bitcoin (BTC) has remained within a narrow range, while the implied volatility of options has stayed at a higher level of 36.35%, compared to the realized volatility of 21.80%. This indicates that the option premiums are reflecting greater fluctuations than the recent movements in the spot market. As of July 25, the one-month ATM implied volatility was 35.58%, and the realized volatility was 30.64%. The one-week implied volatility was 36.17%, with a realized volatility of 24.99%, while over a three-month period, they were 37.73% and 35.09%, respectively. According to the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV) from Volmex, the 30-day expected volatility is 36.35%, derived from the real-time options flow of major derivatives exchanges. Recently, the put-call open interest ratio for BTC options has decreased from 0.76 to 0.52, suggesting a reduction in defensive positions. According to a report by Derivasys, the one-week ATM implied volatility has dropped to 30.39%. The fact that implied volatility in the options market is higher than realized volatility does not alone allow for predicting price direction; rather, it is interpreted as an indicator of how much the market is willing to pay for future volatility.

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