Crude Oil Surges 25%, Hyperliquid Unfolds On-Chain Showdown
Original Title: "Crude Oil Surges 25%, Hyperliquid Witnessing On-chain Showdown"
Original Author: angelilu, Foresight News
"The friend who shorted oil is completely lit up."
On the morning of March 9, when WTI crude oil touched $108 per barrel, on-chain analyst Ai Yi tweeted this. The top account on Hyperliquid's leaderboard was facing an unrealized loss approaching $3.4 million, with a liquidation price set at $120.76.
At the time of writing, the WTI crude oil contract price had reached a intraday high of $119.5, currently trading at $114.5, up over 25% from last Friday's close.
Due to a Strait, Crude Oil Skyrockets Over 40% in a Week
The story starts with the Strait of Hormuz in Iran.
By March 9, the Strait of Hormuz had been almost completely blocked for the seventh consecutive day. This chokepoint, which carries about 20% of the world's oil supply, came to a standstill, causing a seismic shift in the market. By March 9, the WTI crude oil price had skyrocketed in just one week, setting a rare volatility record in recent years, with an increase of over 40% from before the conflict.
The shockwave spread rapidly. The Nikkei index fell 5.4% in a single day, marking the largest drop since the tariff turmoil; the South Korean KOSPI plummeted 7%; the German DAX fell over 3%. Bitcoin was not immune either, dropping below $66,000, with the crypto market liquidating $120 million within an hour. The crypto fear and greed index dropped to 12, putting the market into "extreme fear" territory.
But on Hyperliquid, another war was unfolding.
Three Stories of Shorting Crude Oil
In the on-chain community, CBB (@Cbb0fe) is no stranger. Several months ago, he publicly formed a team dedicated to "hunting" another whale, @qwatio. This time, he himself became the prey.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, CBB shorted 127,175 xyz:CL (WTI Crude Oil Synthetic Contract) at an average price of $78.37, with a nominal value of approximately $13.78 million. As the oil price surged, his unrealized loss had reached $3.81 million, with a liquidation price hanging at $120.76.
There is still room for a few cents to reach that number. But no one knows when the Iran situation will cool down.
Another account, "2 frères 2 fauves," is in a similarly dangerous situation. He entered a short position at $78.36 and currently holds 12,717 CL tokens, with a nominal value of approximately $13.37 million, making him the top holder of CL contracts on Hyperliquid. He is unrealized loss of $3.4 million, with a liquidation price also at $120.76.
Even more dramatic is the ordeal of the whale 0x8Af7. He shorted 72,179 CL tokens (about $7.8 million), and as the oil price rose, his short position was forcibly liquidated entirely, resulting in a loss of over $1.55 million.
However, shortly after the liquidation was completed, in less than a few hours, he immediately reopened a new short position of 60,166 CL tokens, with a nominal value of $6.48 million.
Was it a misjudgment or an unchanging gambling nature? Perhaps both. But the choice itself has already illustrated a certain quality of on-chain high-leverage trading: Liquidation is not the end but merely the end of the previous game.
There are also winners, the other side of Sky DAO
In the same Hyperliquid, at the same time, Sky (formerly MakerDAO) co-founder Rune Christensen was smiling on the other side.
On-chain analyst EmberCN revealed that RuneKek (Rune's on-chain account) had a long position of about $7.82 million in an oil contract, with a cost of around $93. As of today, the oil price has reached $109, and his unrealized profit has exceeded $1.36 million.
What is even more noteworthy is his portfolio strategy: While being long on oil, he also shorted some ETH and XYZ100 (a US stock index mapping contract). This made his strategy more like a geo-conflict hedge logic - oil benefits from a war premium, while stocks and cryptocurrencies are pressured by risk aversion sentiment. By positioning on both sides simultaneously, he hedged the risk of one-sided bets.
Rune Christensen is a DeFi protocol founder who has built a macro hedge portfolio with on-chain perpetual contracts. This fact is more worthy of attention than how much money he made.
On-chain Commodity Trading: New Tools, Old Lessons
This round of oil price movements has brought a once inconspicuous topic to the forefront: on-chain commodity trading.
The crude oil on Hyperliquid was launched on January 9, 2026, by the Felix Protocol (the HIP-3 Market Deployer on Hyperliquid), which was about two months ago. The initial parameters were a maximum of 5x leverage and a maximum unfunded balance of $2.5 million, making it an early small-scale launch that saw a surge in trading volume only after the Iran Strait blockade.
Platforms like Phantom have also gradually launched perpetual contracts for traditional bulk commodities like crude oil and gold. In theory, anyone only needs a single wallet to trade commodity futures like trading Bitcoin, without the need for a traditional futures account or a broker.
This is true financial democratization. But the other side of the coin is equally true.
The traditional bulk commodity futures market has strict margin requirements, circuit breakers, position limits, and risk management teams from brokers constantly monitoring positions. The rules of on-chain perpetual contracts are much simpler: if the position's value falls to the liquidation line, the system automatically liquidates it, without any phone reminders or human intervention.
The liquidation prices for CBB, 2 Frères 2 Fauves, are all around $120.76, which is not a random number but the "safety margin" they calculated when they opened their positions. Within normal oil price fluctuations, there was over $50 of cushioning from the entry price of $78, which seemed quite ample.
However, what they did not anticipate was that a geopolitical crisis could cause a 50% surge in oil prices within 72 hours.
It wasn't a flawed strategy but a black swan event. The issue is that there is no mechanism on-chain to give you a breather when the black swan lands.
When DeFi Meets the Hormuz Strait
The connection between the crypto market and traditional geopolitics is unfolding faster than anyone expected.
Hyperliquid users now need to keep an eye on the latest developments in the Iran Hormuz Strait, while DeFi OGs are hedging war risks with on-chain derivatives.
As the categories of on-chain bulk commodities and on-chain synthetic stock contracts continue to expand, the depth of exposure of on-chain players to macro risks will only increase. In the traditional financial world, this is called "global macro strategy," requiring a professional team and a robust risk management system. On-chain, it's called "an individual's position."
You may also like
CFTC Reportedly Plans New Prediction Market Rules Focused on Manipulation Risk and Public Interest Review
The CFTC is reportedly preparing new prediction market rules focused on manipulation risk, public interest review, and retail trader protections.
Meet the new WEEX trial fund—your gateway to greater profits
WEEX Labs Lands at Dutch Blockchain Week: A Disruptive Crypto × AI Conversation Sets Sail in Amsterdam
SK Hynix Reportedly Plans U.S. ADR Listing as Early as August, With SEC Approval Possible in Late June
SK Hynix may pursue a U.S. ADR listing as early as August, with SEC approval reportedly possible in late June amid strong AI chip supply chain demand.
SpaceX vs Tesla vs xAI: Which Elon Musk Trade Has the Biggest Upside in 2026?
OpenAI Reveals It Has Confidentially Submitted an S-1 to the SEC, Keeping the Door Open for a Future IPO
On June 9, according to an OpenAI announcement, the company recently confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), beginning the preliminary compliance process for a potential initial public offering. OpenAI said it chose to disclose this proactively because it expected the news might leak; however, the company has not yet set a specific listing timeline, and related arrangements may still take some time.
Latest research from 13 top universities including Cornell University: The current state, challenges, and misconceptions of the fusion of Crypto and AI
Deconstructing Anthropic: The Best AI Company, Possibly Also a Type of Organizational Invention
Apollo and Blackstone Reportedly Back $35 Billion Anthropic Chip Financing as Deal Details Remain Unclear
On June 9, according to currently available news alerts, Apollo and Blackstone Group participated in a $35 billion financing for an Anthropic “chip project.” Based on the original wording of the report, the funding has already been raised, but public information remains limited. The financing structure, use of proceeds, project entity, and whether Apollo and Blackstone participated through equity, debt, or project financing have not yet been disclosed.
Humanity Protocol Security Incident Escalates: More Than $31 Million Stolen From Related Addresses as Attacker Continues Selling H for ETH
On June 9, according to monitoring by Onchain Lens, more than $31 million has been stolen from addresses linked to Humanity Protocol, and the attack is still ongoing, with the hacker continuously swapping H tokens for ETH. Project founder Terence Kwok later confirmed the security incident on X, saying the issue involved a private key leak.
Bloomberg: As Bitcoin Weakens, Stablecoins and RWA Continue to Drive Expansion in Crypto Businesses
In June, Bloomberg reported that despite Bitcoin falling below $60,000 last week, wiping out about $235 billion in market value within seven days, and dropping close to 50% from last year’s peak, some core businesses in the crypto industry are still expanding, mainly in stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), payments, and infrastructure. The report also noted that overall altcoin activity has contracted significantly: altcoin market capitalization has fallen from a peak of about $431 billion in November 2021 to around $170 billion, and among the tens of millions of tokens issued in recent years, fewer than 1,700 still maintain meaningful trading activity.
Galaxy Deep Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Landscape of Prediction Markets?
Binance Research: RWA Market Expected to Expand Nearly 6x from Early 2025, with Public Equities and Onchain Payments Heating Up Together
In June, Binance Research said in its monthly market report that the real-world asset (RWA) market is expected to grow by about 589% from the beginning of 2025. Bond- and money market fund-related RWA expanded by about $6.5 billion, up 83% year over year, while publicly traded equity RWAs grew by about 422%. The report also noted that monthly crypto debit card transaction volume exceeded $747 million in May, up 48.6% year to date.
Japan to Assess a Framework for Yen Stablecoins and Crypto ETFs as Asia’s Compliant Payments Narrative Heats Up
Recently, according to the original report, Japan is considering the launch of yen stablecoins and cryptocurrency ETFs. Public information remains limited at this stage, and there is still no complete policy text, regulatory draft, or clear implementation timeline, so this is better characterized as a “policy discussion” rather than formal implementation. The original wording also noted that advancing stablecoin regulation in Asia is driving XRP usage and supporting growth in the XRPL ecosystem. However, based on currently available public information, there is not enough evidence to directly establish a clear causal relationship between this round of discussion in Japan and XRP or XRPL.
ZachXBT: Humanity private key leak and abnormal surge in H token should be viewed separately
On June 9, according to related disclosures, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted an update on Humanity’s roughly $31 million security incident, saying that after further analyzing fund flows, he currently tends to believe the project team was not involved in an “inside job” or a self-staged attack. According to him, the official explanation about the private key leak was broadly accurate, but before the token unlock, the price of H had been artificially pushed higher, and the hacker later took advantage of that market environment; therefore, the private key leak and the earlier abnormal price pumping should be regarded as two separate and independent events. This reframing has shifted the market’s understanding of the nature of the incident. Earlier discussion around Humanity had focused on whether the team directly participated in the attack or used the security incident to cover up internal operations. ZachXBT’s latest remarks shift the focus from “whether it was self-theft” to “whether there were pre-unlock market structure issues.” He also questioned whether the team may have.
Morning Report | OpenAI has submitted an S-1 registration statement draft to the U.S. SEC; Morpho completes $175 million financing
Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market
Wang Chuan: How can one not feel anxious after the neighbor Old Wang made thirty times profit by investing in storage stocks? (Seven) - A quarter-century cycle
CFTC Reportedly Plans New Prediction Market Rules Focused on Manipulation Risk and Public Interest Review
The CFTC is reportedly preparing new prediction market rules focused on manipulation risk, public interest review, and retail trader protections.
Meet the new WEEX trial fund—your gateway to greater profits
WEEX Labs Lands at Dutch Blockchain Week: A Disruptive Crypto × AI Conversation Sets Sail in Amsterdam
SK Hynix Reportedly Plans U.S. ADR Listing as Early as August, With SEC Approval Possible in Late June
SK Hynix may pursue a U.S. ADR listing as early as August, with SEC approval reportedly possible in late June amid strong AI chip supply chain demand.
SpaceX vs Tesla vs xAI: Which Elon Musk Trade Has the Biggest Upside in 2026?
OpenAI Reveals It Has Confidentially Submitted an S-1 to the SEC, Keeping the Door Open for a Future IPO
On June 9, according to an OpenAI announcement, the company recently confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), beginning the preliminary compliance process for a potential initial public offering. OpenAI said it chose to disclose this proactively because it expected the news might leak; however, the company has not yet set a specific listing timeline, and related arrangements may still take some time.
