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CryptoQuant: Bear Market May Have Started, Mid-Term Support Level Expected at $70,000
BlockBeats News, December 20, On-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant released a report stating that Bitcoin demand growth has significantly slowed, signaling a possible bear market ahead. Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three major on-chain demand surges—driven by the launch of a U.S. spot ETF, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and the Bitcoin Treasury Company bubble—but since early October 2025, demand growth has been below the trend level. This indicates that much of the new demand in this cycle has already materialized, and a key pillar of price support has disappeared as a result.
On the other hand, the derivatives market has also confirmed a weakening risk appetite: the funding rate of perpetual futures (365-day moving average) has dropped to the lowest level since December 2023. Historically, such a decline reflects a decreased willingness to maintain long positions, a pattern that typically occurs in a bear market rather than a bull market.
Technically, the price structure has deteriorated along with weak demand: Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average, a key long-term technical support level that has historically served as a dividing line between bull and bear markets.
However, downside references indicate a relatively small bear market magnitude: Historically, the Bitcoin bear market bottom has aligned closely with the realized price, currently around $56,000, indicating a potential retreat of up to 55% from recent highs—the smallest retreat in history. The mid-term support level is expected to be around $70,000.
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