Disaster to Gambling Site? Polymarket Stirs Controversy with "California Wildfire Prediction Market"

Original Article Title: Polymarket faces backlash over 'sick' California wildfire markets
Original Author: Protos Staff
Original Translation: Ashley, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: The article criticized the prediction market platform Polymarket for the controversy surrounding users speculating on the California wildfires. Against the backdrop of wildfires that have already caused multiple deaths and forced tens of thousands to evacuate, users apathetically bet on the development of the disaster, with some prediction pools reaching up to $100,000. This behavior of "gambling" on a public disaster has sparked intense moral questioning.

The following is the original content (slightly rephrased for better understanding):

Wildfire 'Gambling' Sparks Outrage

Polymarket is currently facing widespread criticism for its "disgusting" prediction markets, where the platform is allowing bets on the ongoing California wildfires.

The wildfires broke out in the Hollywood Hills on Wednesday and quickly spread across various parts of Los Angeles. As of now, five deadly wildfires have led to over 137,000 evacuations and claimed the lives of 5 individuals.

Many Polymarket users have taken advantage of this situation to create various prediction markets related to the spread of the fire, when the fire will be brought under control, and potential resignations of political figures, among others. The trading volume for some markets has approached $100,000.

However, many netizens are not buying into these markets and Polymarket's promotion. One user on X platform bluntly stated, "Betting on a wildfire is truly sick." Another user expressed that betting on such a tragedy is "unacceptably shameless no matter what."

Some users are even concerned that wildfire prediction markets may encourage arsonists to increase their bet's success rate. One user pointed out that the odds of these markets are entirely based on gamblers' emotions and responded to Polymarket's post saying, "No, there is no '48% chance of spreading,' it's just that 48% of people are betting on it happening."

For Polymarket, such strong opposition is nothing new. Last year, in the Titan Submersible Disaster market, the platform faced similar criticism for allowing users to bet on whether the submersible would explode, leading to the death of 5 passengers.

To mitigate its liability across at least 10 different Wildfire markets, Polymarket added a brief disclaimer stating that it leverages "crowdsourced wisdom" to create "accurate and objective event predictions." The disclaimer states: "The devastating Pacific Palisades wildfire is one such event where Polymarket can provide valuable real-time answers to those directly affected in a way that traditional media cannot."

It is worth noting that if you are truly affected by a wildfire, relying on news organizations actively reporting on the event is more reliable than a crypto prediction platform.

Crypto Companies Near the Wildfires

In addition to threatening millions of California residents, the rapidly spreading wildfires also pose a significant threat to several crypto companies and prominent community members. Many have already lost homes and belongings, including valuable hardware wallets.

Employees of the Santa Monica Bitcoin Office are located just south of the Palisades and Getty fires. Several employees of Swan Bitcoin, which previously hosted the Pacific Bitcoin conference in Santa Monica, are also in the southern fire-affected region.

Blockchain service provider BlockDaemon is headquartered in Los Angeles, along with another crypto game developer, SuperVerse. Blockchain-based identity verification and tokenization company SpringLabs is headquartered in the nearby Marina del Rey.

Some companies have been relatively fortunate. As of now, the Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles has not been impacted by the fires. Crypto entertainment venues DaBank and Jungla in Hawthorne and North Hollywood have also temporarily been spared from the wildfires.

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