Fidelity names 6 risks to crypto’s AI agent thesis

Fidelity Digital Assets identified six risks that could weaken the investment case connecting artificial intelligence agents with public blockchains.
Summary

• Fidelity identified six risks that could prevent AI agents from creating value for public blockchains.
• Closed technology and fintech platforms may offer agents better performance, costs, distribution and compliance certainty.
• Payments could increase blockchain activity while directing more economic value toward stablecoin issuers and services.
• AI can accelerate software development while making vulnerabilities cheaper for attackers to discover and exploit.
• Trading generated forty nine times more Ethereum revenue per dollar than payments across 180 days.

Senior research analyst Max Wadington published the report on Aug. 19. Fidelity said AI could accelerate blockchain development and create demand for programmable financial infrastructure. However, increased agent activity may not produce lasting value for blockchain networks or their native tokens.

The six risks cover limited value from increased software production, weaker technical differentiation, competition from closed systems, low value capture from payments, growing security threats and regulatory constraints.

Fidelity presented them as possible outcomes rather than forecasts. The report's central question is not simply whether AI agents will use blockchains. It is whether networks and applications can capture meaningful economic value from that activity.

AI agents may favor closed platforms over public blockchains

Fidelity described competition from closed systems as one of the largest risks to the crypto AI thesis. Technology companies, banks, payment networks and fintech platforms are building infrastructure that allows agents to transact through controlled environments.

These platforms may offer advantages in performance, costs, user experience and regulatory clarity. They already have broad merchant distribution, established identity systems and the ability to extend credit. Public blockchains cannot assume that their accessibility and programmable settlement will overcome those advantages.

"Even if AI drives a substantial increase in overall digital economic activity, there is no guarantee that public blockchains will capture a meaningful share of it," Wadington wrote.

Fidelity expects agents could use several types of infrastructure. An agent might use a blockchain for a machine payment but rely on a bank or fintech platform for credit, identity checks and other services. The report calls this possible outcome "multi-fi."

Such competition is already becoming visible. Google, Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, Coinbase and other companies are developing agent payment systems across card, bank and blockchain rails.

Payment growth may not raise native token value

Fidelity also questioned whether higher transaction counts would produce proportionate returns for native blockchain tokens. Agent payments could generate substantial volume while producing limited fee revenue for the underlying network.

Stablecoin issuers and payment service providers may capture more value than base blockchains. Fidelity said low fees and strong competition could make agent payments economically useful without making them a major source of tokenholder income.

Recent activity illustrates the distinction between adoption and revenue. As previously reported, AI agents completed 1.4 million payments for approximately $280 in network fees on the XRP Ledger. The activity demonstrated technical use but generated little fee income relative to its transaction count.

Fidelity found that trading produced 49 times more Ethereum base layer revenue per dollar of volume than payments during the previous 180 days. Trading can also generate maximal extractable value for validators.

The report therefore sees stronger economic potential in agents that manage capital. Automated trading, lending, borrowing and liquidity provision could create more fees than large numbers of small payments.

AI makes development faster but weakens differentiation

AI tools can help developers write, test and deploy blockchain applications faster. Fidelity cited research involving more than 100,000 GitHub developers that found coding agents increased commits by as much as 180% and production releases by 30%.

More software does not automatically create useful products, according to Fidelity. Applications still require distribution, liquidity, regulatory compliance and sustained user demand. Human oversight also remains necessary for security critical financial software.

Cheaper development could make blockchain features easier to reproduce. Networks may find it harder to distinguish themselves through technology when competitors can quickly copy or modify similar tools.

Fidelity said durable advantages could shift toward liquidity, distribution, security and trust. Established networks and applications may benefit because those qualities cannot be reproduced as easily as software features.

Security and regulation could reshape agent adoption

Fidelity said AI lowers the cost of building software while also making it cheaper to identify vulnerabilities and conduct attacks. The resulting pressure could turn security from a basic requirement into a central competitive advantage.

Evidence supports both sides of that assessment. In related coverage, researchers found that AI agents identified genuine vulnerabilities in Ethereum related software, including a flaw later disclosed as CVE-2026-34219. Human researchers still had to separate valid findings from convincing false positives.

Regulatory requirements create another barrier. Institutions may favor systems offering clear identity controls, permissioning and legal accountability. Fully permissionless networks could face difficulty connecting autonomous agents with regulated financial services.

The market is still testing these tradeoffs. Coinbase has enabled businesses to accept USDC payments from autonomous agents, while Stripe, Visa and other established payment companies are developing competing or complementary systems.

Fidelity said investors should watch where agents deploy capital, not just how many transactions they complete. Networks that combine liquidity, strong distribution, security and regulatory integration may be better positioned to convert AI activity into durable economic demand.