Foreign Media: Musk Claims AI Growth Will Accelerate Significantly from 2026

Foreign media reports that Musk recently posted a graph of AI progress on the X platform, stating that the growth of artificial intelligence is accelerating like a "supersonic tsunami." The chart covers the period from July 2023 to July 2026, showing a relatively flat trend in the early stages, with a noticeable upward trend beginning in early 2026. The article suggests that this statement reinforces Musk's judgment about the accelerated development of AI and is also related to the recent performance of xAI's models.

Chart Marks Early 2026 as a Turning Point

The chart provided by Musk marks November 2024 as a low point. At that time, the market was concerned that the capabilities of large models were slowing down. The report mentions that there were rumors of a new model codenamed Orion from OpenAI, which showed limited improvement compared to GPT-4, intensifying discussions about whether the "expansion has peaked."

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman publicly refuted these claims at the time, stating that there was no so-called "wall." In this article's view, Musk's release of the curve graph is a more aggressive narrative responding to that round of skepticism, attempting to illustrate that AI capabilities have resumed their acceleration since 2026.

Grok 4.5 Becomes One of Musk's Arguments

The article notes that Musk's judgment is supported not only by the graph. xAI's latest model, Grok 4.5, recently ranked high in an independent agent benchmark test by Artificial Analysis, surpassing some competitors in both cost and speed metrics.

This is seen as a phase of progress after xAI's efforts to catch up over the past year, providing some external data support for Musk's claims of accelerated AI growth. The report also states that Musk has indicated that SpaceX's engineering data will be included in Grok's next round of training, but content restricted by U.S. weapons export controls will be excluded.

Change of Tone Towards Anthropic, Discrepancies Remain on AGI Timeline

The report also mentions that Musk has recently adjusted his public evaluations of competitors. After previously criticizing Anthropic multiple times, he recently referred to it as the "current industry leader." The article suggests that this change indicates that the gap between leading AI labs may be narrowing, and the pace of competition is accelerating.

On the more closely watched AGI timeline, discrepancies remain evident. Musk stated in January this year at Davos that AGI could reach or even exceed the intelligence level of a single human by the end of 2026. Geoffrey Hinton, known as the "godfather of AI," believes that the arrival of general AGI may still take up to twenty years. Another AI researcher, Ben Goertzel, expressed views closer to Musk's but did not explicitly support the specific timeline of 2026.

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