Oil Price Cools Off, Crypto Bounces Back
Woke up to an oil price crash.
The historically high oil price, which surged to $110 per barrel just yesterday, experienced a monumental collapse today, plummeting over 30% in a single day, briefly dipping below $84 per barrel, causing a sensation across the internet.
The BlockBeat's editorial team wrote an article yesterday titled "Why does oil rise when Bitcoin falls?," analyzing the relationship between oil and Bitcoin prices. As per the logic we discussed earlier, with this morning's oil price crash and temporary easing of inflation expectations, Bitcoin saw a significant rebound, crossing back above the $70,000 mark.
This once again demonstrates Bitcoin's characteristic as a "liquidity thermometer." Once the signal of inflation, driven by rising oil prices, cools off, market fears of interest rate hikes subside, liquidity expectations recover, and Bitcoin swiftly recovers lost ground.
This back-and-forth movement also reflects the latest tone-setting on the war situation by the Trump administration.
In his speeches last night and this morning, Trump's attitude underwent a subtle but crucial shift. Despite his previous strong demands for Iran's "unconditional surrender," he stated in the latest press conference that the military operations of the U.S.-Israel coalition are "proceeding very smoothly and ahead," hinting that the main military objectives have been "basically completed."
At the same time, Trump also hinted at a ceasefire, stating that this conflict will be resolved "very soon." Although he did not provide a specific ceasefire timetable, this "mission almost accomplished" posture greatly alleviated market fears of a "protracted war" and "total war."
Meanwhile, concerns about the Strait of Hormuz eased significantly this morning. The core logic behind the previous oil price surge was the market's fear of the blockade of this global passage where nearly one-fifth of the world's oil transits. Trump today played several cards on the supply side: announcing plans to directly escort oil tankers with the U.S. Navy, considering exemptions from some energy sanctions to hedge the Middle East gap, and mentioning the mobilization of approximately 100 million barrels of oil from Venezuela into the market.
Simultaneously, the G7 group of finance ministers issued a joint statement, indicating that countries have reached a consensus and are prepared to release emergency strategic oil reserves at any time. With this multi-pronged approach, a large amount of short-term speculative funds began to unwind their positions around the $120 mark.
Is Trump Really Calling for a Ceasefire?
Early risers have read numerous military analyses, with most suggesting that similar to the "famous for being famous" approach at the start of the war, what Trump is currently seeking is a dignified "declaration of victory" and a withdrawal strategy to promptly and gracefully end military operations.
From a military perspective, the U.S. achieved a "significant victory" at the beginning of the war with its targeted "decapitation" strikes against senior Iranian officials and the substantial destruction of the Iranian Air Force and Navy. Therefore, some analysts believe that as long as actual control of the Strait of Hormuz is established, whether through the U.S. military or the intervention of American security firms, it is sufficient to ensure the security of the energy passage.
This "take the win and run" mentality stems from the Trump administration's reluctance to repeat past mistakes. Trump is acutely aware of the complexity of the Middle East situation and is concerned that a long-term presence of ground forces would lead to endless guerrilla warfare and civilian resistance, ultimately evolving into a protracted and costly conflict akin to the Iraq War.
Driving Trump's desire to de-escalate quickly is not just a military assessment but also a more practical "pain point" from an economic perspective: oil prices and inflation.
The chain reaction caused by surging oil prices has put considerable pressure on the U.S. domestic economy. With crude oil prices briefly surpassing $119 per barrel, domestic trucking costs in the U.S. have significantly risen. This increase in logistics costs directly translates to higher end-consumer prices, leading to a comprehensive rise in prices. Trump is acutely aware that if oil prices are not quickly stabilized, uncontrolled inflation would directly threaten his political reputation, and he could even be attacked by opponents for his inability to govern effectively. Therefore, by releasing the expectation that "the war will end soon" to combat speculative trading in the financial markets and induce a sharp drop in oil prices back below $90, he sees this as a key means to alleviate domestic economic contradictions.
Furthermore, this analysis suggests that the U.S. domestic security situation and the midterm election agenda are also influencing factors. The U.S. has already seen signs of a suspected "Sleeping Cell" terrorist threat domestically, with arrests of immigrants manufacturing bombs in places like New York. This domestic security turmoil triggered by the war is a driving force for Trump to urgently "settle" things.
Simultaneously, Trump is actively pushing for the passage of the "Save America Act," seeking to pave the way for the midterm elections through measures such as standardizing citizen identity voting. For Trump, he is more willing to focus his energy on elections and domestic governance rather than linger long-term on a battlefield that could erupt into terrorism at any moment and is draining resources daily. Therefore, he needs to find a balance and withdraw troops as quickly as possible in the next one to two weeks.
Therefore, the framework we discussed in our previous article now has a new variable: the duration of the war may be shorter than the most pessimistic expectations.
If Trump does find that "declare victory" moment soon, the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices will quickly diminish, the inflation narrative will cool down, and the Fed's interest rate cut trajectory will reopen. At that point, what Raoul Pal talked about regarding liquidity expansion logic will no longer be just a medium-term expectation but may arrive faster than most people anticipate.
Today's Bitcoin rebound may just be a preview.
You may also like
Galaxy Deep Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Landscape of Prediction Markets?
ZachXBT: Humanity private key leak and abnormal surge in H token should be viewed separately
On June 9, according to related disclosures, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted an update on Humanity’s roughly $31 million security incident, saying that after further analyzing fund flows, he currently tends to believe the project team was not involved in an “inside job” or a self-staged attack. According to him, the official explanation about the private key leak was broadly accurate, but before the token unlock, the price of H had been artificially pushed higher, and the hacker later took advantage of that market environment; therefore, the private key leak and the earlier abnormal price pumping should be regarded as two separate and independent events. This reframing has shifted the market’s understanding of the nature of the incident. Earlier discussion around Humanity had focused on whether the team directly participated in the attack or used the security incident to cover up internal operations. ZachXBT’s latest remarks shift the focus from “whether it was self-theft” to “whether there were pre-unlock market structure issues.” He also questioned whether the team may have.
Morning Report | OpenAI has submitted an S-1 registration statement draft to the U.S. SEC; Morpho completes $175 million financing
Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market
Wang Chuan: How can one not feel anxious after the neighbor Old Wang made thirty times profit by investing in storage stocks? (Seven) - A quarter-century cycle
Cryptocurrency CEXs are flocking to sell US stocks, and traditional brokerages are facing an "uninvited guest."
$75 billion in foreign capital has fled, and South Korean retail investors have absorbed it all using leverage
Japan’s Three Megabanks Plan Joint Stablecoin Issuance in Fiscal 2026
MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho reportedly plan to jointly issue fiat-pegged stablecoins in fiscal 2026, signaling Japan’s growing push into bank-led digital payment infrastructure.
Humanity Discloses H Token Dual-Chain Attack Details, With Losses on Ethereum and BSC Exceeding $36 Million
Humanity said the H token attack across Ethereum and BSC caused more than $36 million in losses after leaked ProxyAdmin keys enabled malicious contract upgrades and token minting.
White House Discusses CLARITY Act With Law Enforcement Ahead of Senate Vote
The White House discussed the CLARITY Act with law enforcement ahead of a Senate vote, focusing on illicit finance risks and developer protections.
Bitcoin Trading Guide 2026: Strategies for Experienced Traders
What Is XAUT and PAXG? Why Tokenized Gold Is Booming in 2026
Will the SpaceX IPO Hurt Bitcoin? Here's What Traders Are Watching
Foreign selling in the South Korean stock market accelerates, with cumulative net sales reportedly reaching $75 billion this year
On June 9, The Kobeissi Letter, citing Goldman Sachs data, reported that global investors are selling South Korean stocks at an unusually rapid pace. In the latest trading session, foreign investors sold about $801 million worth of Kospi constituent stocks again; total foreign outflows last week reached about $10 billion, and the market has been in net foreign selling on nearly every trading day over the past month. According to the data cited in the report, foreign investors have sold about $75 billion worth of South Korean stocks so far this year. Meanwhile, South Korean retail and institutional investors together recorded roughly $69 billion in net buying over the same period, suggesting that the market’s main buying support has come from domestic capital rather than returning overseas funds. The information currently disclosed still mainly comes from The Kobeissi Letter’s retelling and Goldman Sachs data summaries, while public details on the statistical period and the specific definition of “selling” remain relatively limited.
Fortune Warns of Strategy’s Financing Structure Risks as Bitcoin Premium Narrows
Fortune warned that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury model faces growing financing risks as MSTR’s net asset premium narrows and preferred stock dividend pressure increases.
Ferrari Challenge Le Mans: Carl Moon to Dominate in WEEX Livery
Sahara AI Responds to SAHARA’s Sharp Drop: No Contract or Product Security Issues Found, Internal Investigation Underway
Sahara AI responded to SAHARA’s 60% price drop, saying no token contract or product security issues have been found and an internal investigation is underway.
WEEX Deposit/Withdrawal Dynamic Island: Your Asset Status, Always in Sight
Galaxy Deep Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Landscape of Prediction Markets?
ZachXBT: Humanity private key leak and abnormal surge in H token should be viewed separately
On June 9, according to related disclosures, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted an update on Humanity’s roughly $31 million security incident, saying that after further analyzing fund flows, he currently tends to believe the project team was not involved in an “inside job” or a self-staged attack. According to him, the official explanation about the private key leak was broadly accurate, but before the token unlock, the price of H had been artificially pushed higher, and the hacker later took advantage of that market environment; therefore, the private key leak and the earlier abnormal price pumping should be regarded as two separate and independent events. This reframing has shifted the market’s understanding of the nature of the incident. Earlier discussion around Humanity had focused on whether the team directly participated in the attack or used the security incident to cover up internal operations. ZachXBT’s latest remarks shift the focus from “whether it was self-theft” to “whether there were pre-unlock market structure issues.” He also questioned whether the team may have.
Morning Report | OpenAI has submitted an S-1 registration statement draft to the U.S. SEC; Morpho completes $175 million financing
Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market
Wang Chuan: How can one not feel anxious after the neighbor Old Wang made thirty times profit by investing in storage stocks? (Seven) - A quarter-century cycle
Cryptocurrency CEXs are flocking to sell US stocks, and traditional brokerages are facing an "uninvited guest."
