Ripple unlocks 1 billion XRP—Is a major sell-off coming?

Ripple has released 1 billion XRP tokens from escrow, marking a departure from the company’s usual XRP release pattern, which has remained unchanged since 2017. Ripple executed the release on May 3, 2025, in three trades—500 million XRP, 300 million XRP, and 200 million—worth at least $2.2 billion at XRP’s average exchange rate. The release is notable because it came two days later than usual for Ripple to release funds, as the firm unlocks one billion XRP each first day of the month. Details of the transactions were released by Whale Alert, a blockchain data service that confirmed the payments had been sent from Ripple’s escrow wallet. Ripple alters escrow timing amid XRP’s market consolidation Ripple’s monthly escrow process has been established since 2017 to provide a consistent and predictable supply of XRP to support market liquidity. The initial plan was to place 55 billion XRP into escrow, with one billion monthly release for 55 months. The latest release followed Ripple’s escrow lockup of 700 million XRP on May 2, 2025. This is the third month in a row that Ripple has made this pre-release move — also noticed in April and March — which could suggest a change of tactic. Traditionally, around 700 million XRP has been relocked after each release. However, Ripple recently changed when this relocking occurred from post-release to before release. This shift has led to speculation on Ripple’s focus regarding liquidity control and the distribution of the XRP supply. Ripple has not publicly issued a statement as to why the change in timing is being made. Still, some in the market speculate that the new date has something to do with market conditions or internal policy changes. However, the company has not verified these rumors. So far in May, XRP has traded between $1.96 and $2.50. Analysts say the asset is consolidating right now. Charts watchers point out that XRP has been maintaining above the key support levels, such as the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the historical resistance of around $1.80. Crypto analyst Casitrades provided her technical analysis, speculating that a back-test of the $2.25 level may occur and that a move further down to $1.90 is still on the table. The analyst added that the recent RSI is overbought, suggesting short-term price declines may be followed by some rebound time. The near-term sentiment is neutral, with longer-term traders closely watching resistance at $2.25. If XRP can maintain above this level, higher targets of $2.68 and $3.00 could be on the table. XRP is “loading” as Wall Street quietly moves in Recently, popular crypto influencer John Squire commented on the popular claim within the crypto community from critics labeling XRP as a “dead coin”. In Squire’s view, XRP is “loading,” potentially setting up for a monumental rally. In a lengthy May 1 post on X, John Squire noted that Ripple-affiliated cryptocurrency XRP is the only top 10 cryptocurrency mired in a multi-year-long legal battle with the U.S. government and emerged victorious. With the regulatory cloud finally behind it, Squire thinks XRP is poised to see a tidal wave of institutional adoption that sends the crypto higher in value. The pundit says that big money is gearing up as the CME Group is ready to introduce cash-settled XRP futures later this month. A comparable product from Coinbase, America’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, was introduced in April, underscoring growing institutional interest in XRP. Squire backed this sentiment by citing rumors of a potential XRP trust from asset management giant BlackRock — arguably the most highly awaited XRP product. He claims this is not retail-driven hype but early indications of Wall Street quietly positioning itself.