Tom Lee Predicts 12 Bullish Months for Crypto: The 3 Drivers of His Thesis

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, sees a "truly bullish" period for cryptocurrencies over the next 12 months. He highlights the cleaning of leverage, institutional adoption of blockchain, and the potential of tokenization. Just days after the interview, the U.S. Senate blocked the advancement of the CLARITY Act, one of the catalysts he mentioned.

Tom Lee Expects the Crypto Cycle's Bottom in a Few Weeks

Tom Lee has chaired the board of BitMine Immersion Technologies since June 2025. The company held 5.96 million ETH as of September 13, representing 4.9% of the total supply. Estimates published in early September assessed the unrealized loss of this position at around $5 billion.

He delivered his forecast on September 11, 2026, in a video interview. He anticipates a bottom in the four-year bitcoin cycle in October 2026.

On September 16, bitcoin was trading around $75,900, about 40% below its record of over $126,000 from October 2025. However, it has shown an increase of about 20% over the month.

According to him, a large portion of the leverage has already left the market. On October 10, 2025, following the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in one day.

Lee observes the first signs of a return to borrowing while anticipating corrections along the way.

By the end of 2025, Tom Lee aimed for bitcoin to be between $200,000 and $250,000. The asset peaked around $126,000 before closing the year around $88,000. In January 2026, he reiterated the same range for the end of that year.

Tokenization Fuels a $20 Trillion Thesis

According to Tom Lee, major financial institutions have been ramping up initiatives around blockchain, tokenized securities, and stablecoins for about 18 months. He notably cites Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, and Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, both of whom have advocated for the development of financial assets on blockchain.

Lee estimates that $100 trillion in assets could eventually be tokenized. He believes this migration could generate around $1.1 trillion in annual revenue, with a potential valuation of $20 trillion.

Citi estimated the value of tokenized financial assets at $17 billion in June 2026. The bank projects $5.5 trillion by 2030 in its central scenario.

Stablecoins also play a significant role in his thesis.

Their total supply reached $303 billion in August 2026. Tom Lee associates them with the development of financial assets on blockchain, while Citi views regulated stablecoins as a possible settlement layer for these future tokenized assets.

The CLARITY Act, One of the Catalysts Cited by Tom Lee, Remains Blocked in the Senate

For Tom Lee, the CLARITY Act was one of the elements likely to support the crypto market over the next 12 months.

On September 15, the U.S. Senate rejected the procedural motion to advance the bill by 49 votes to 50. It needed 60 votes.

The bill was supposed to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, the U.S. market regulator. It aimed to give the CFTC new authority over markets for digital assets classified as "digital commodities".

A Capital in Stablecoins Doesn’t Need Tom Lee to Be Right

"Do they want to be right or make money?" Tom Lee asks about investors who have no exposure to cryptocurrencies. Betting on his scenario assumes being correct about the market direction and its timing.

Other possibilities exist for deploying capital in the crypto ecosystem. Stablecoins can be deposited on DeFi protocols to aim for yield through strategies designed to extract from exposure to market movements.

The market rise remains a hypothesis that one must be right about at the right time. Other strategies allow for seeking yield in crypto based on different mechanisms.