Traders Increase $10 Million Cross-Market Bet on U.S.-Iran Conflict Probability

On August 17, since first tracking on July 30, xm39 geopolitical conflict traders have seen the probability of "the U.S. invading Iran before 2027" drop from about 27.63% to 16.5%, according to Polymarket. Nevertheless, xm39 continues to increase its bets, expanding its trades from solely betting on oil to a "long oil, short stocks" strategy. Currently, xm39 has invested approximately $321,100 in this prediction market, a 44% increase since the initial monitoring, with an average cost reduced to $24.49; the current value of the position is about $216,300, with an unrealized loss of approximately $104,800, or 32.6%. This morning, it continued to buy 25 trades at an approximate 16% probability. Meanwhile, its Hyperliquid position has expanded from an initial single WTI long position of about $13.22 million to approximately $17.606 million: a 20x full position long on WTI of about $7.299 million, with an unrealized gain of about $70,500; and a 30x full position short on XYZ100 of about $10.307 million, with an unrealized loss of about $13,400. This morning, xm39 also added approximately $2.867 million in WTI long positions and $7.128 million in XYZ100 short positions, and continues to have about $2.664 million in oil buy orders at prices between $79.06 and $81.21.

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