Unraveling Bitcoin’s Journey to $98K: Key Obstacles and Rebound Probabilities

By: coineagle|2025/05/04 19:30:01
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Key PointsBitcoin shows signs of a potential rebound, but valuation conflicts may delay a breakout above $98K.Whale accumulation rose by 26.41%, but long-term distribution remains a challenge to sustained bullish momentum.Bitcoin, also known as BTC, is hinting at a possible recovery. This is backed by a TD Sequential buy signal on the hourly chart and renewed technical momentum.Despite the price consolidating below $96,000, various on-chain and derivatives-based metrics imply that BTC could be gearing up for a significant move, given the right structural signals.Whale Accumulation and Network ActivityThe initial spark of optimism comes from fresh accumulation from whales. The Large Holder Netflow increased by 26.41% over the past week, indicating short-term conviction at current levels.However, the overall trend is still impacted by the 30-day and 90-day Netflows, which have decreased by -108.09% and -110.13% respectively. This means that despite the recent recovery, long-term distribution remains a hindrance to sustained bullish momentum.Additionally, Glassnode data revealed a significant increase in on-chain usage, with 925,914 active addresses recorded in the last 24 hours. This is the highest level of network activity in six months and indicates strong blockchain engagement.Valuation Metrics and Market HealthSeveral valuation models provide a mixed outlook. The Puell Multiple is at 1.36, suggesting that miner revenues are within a healthy range. On the other hand, the NVT and NVM ratios have increased by 50% and 26% respectively, implying that market capitalization is outpacing transaction and user activity.Also, the Stock-to-Flow Ratio has declined by 50%, indicating reduced confidence in long-term scarcity pricing. These conflicting metrics show that while fundamentals aren’t weak, the market remains in a valuation gray zone.Furthermore, Binance’s Liquidation Heatmap reveals densely packed liquidity clusters near $94,000 and $98,000. These levels represent zones of high leveraged positioning, where price volatility often intensifies.If BTC breaks above $98K, it could trigger a cascade of short liquidations that fuel upward momentum. However, a drop below $94K could liquidate long positions and drive the price lower.While Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery with increasing network activity and fresh whale inflows, long-term sell pressure, negative price-to-activity divergence, and valuation tension suggest that the path to a breakout above $98K remains uncertain. For now, momentum exists—but caution is advised until more alignment across metrics materializes.

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On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.


2025 Full Year and Fourth Quarter Financial and Operational Highlights


• Financial Performance:

Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.

Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.


• Mining Operations and Costs:

A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.

The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;

The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.

As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.


• Strategic Progress:

The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.


CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."


"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."


The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."


Fourth Quarter 2025 Ongoing Operations Financial Performance


Revenue


The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.


Operating Costs and Expenses


The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.


This includes:

· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion

· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million

· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)

· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million

· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million


Profit Situation


The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.


The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.


The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.


Full Year 2025 Ongoing Operations Financial Performance


Revenue

The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.


Operating Costs and Expenses


The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.


Specifically, they include:

· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million

· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million

· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)

· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million

· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million


Profitability


The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.


The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.


Financial Position


As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:


· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million

· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million

· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million

· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million


In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.


Stock Repurchase


As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.


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