US-Iran Conflict Spurs $600M in Bets, Polymarket Launches Multiple Related Contracts

By: theblockbeats.news|2026/03/01 14:00:55

BlockBeats News, March 1st: After the United States launched an airstrike against Iran, decentralized prediction platform Polymarket quickly launched over a dozen contracts related to the US-Iran conflict, with a total wager amount exceeding $600 million.

Among them, the contract "Will Khamenei lose his position as the Supreme Leader by March 31st" settled at 100% after confirmation of his death, with a single-market trading volume of $45 million. The "Will the US strike Iran by a certain date" contract, launched last December, has accumulated a total trading volume of $529 million, becoming one of the largest markets in the platform's history.

In addition, the probability of the "Iranian regime collapsing by June 30th" contract has currently risen to 54%, and the probability of the "US deploying military forces to Iran by March 7th" contract is approximately 28%.

On-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps pointed out that six wallets accurately bet on "the US striking Iran on the same day" before the February 28th airstrike, with a total profit of around $1.2 million, raising concerns about potential insider trading.

-- Price

A Polymarket user supported nearly half of Trade.xyz's "active addresses" with 34,000 wallets, yet contributed less than 1% of the trading volume. The real support for the market comes from market-making institutions like Jump, Selini, and Wintermute, as well as a group of directional traders crossi...

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