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US-Iran Conflict Spurs $600M in Bets, Polymarket Launches Multiple Related Contracts
BlockBeats News, March 1st: After the United States launched an airstrike against Iran, decentralized prediction platform Polymarket quickly launched over a dozen contracts related to the US-Iran conflict, with a total wager amount exceeding $600 million.
Among them, the contract "Will Khamenei lose his position as the Supreme Leader by March 31st" settled at 100% after confirmation of his death, with a single-market trading volume of $45 million. The "Will the US strike Iran by a certain date" contract, launched last December, has accumulated a total trading volume of $529 million, becoming one of the largest markets in the platform's history.
In addition, the probability of the "Iranian regime collapsing by June 30th" contract has currently risen to 54%, and the probability of the "US deploying military forces to Iran by March 7th" contract is approximately 28%.
On-chain analytics firm Bubblemaps pointed out that six wallets accurately bet on "the US striking Iran on the same day" before the February 28th airstrike, with a total profit of around $1.2 million, raising concerns about potential insider trading.
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