web3: US July CPI to be Released, Bitcoin and Market Await Direction

CoinWorld reports:

The US July CPI data is about to be released, and the market views this inflation report as a key variable for the short term. Currently, investors have almost no consensus on whether the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in September, with Bitcoin fluctuating around $64,300, and risk assets overall are waiting for new pricing guidance.

September Rate Expectations Nearly 50-50

CME FedWatch data shows that the market expects a 52.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold in September, with a 47.9% probability of a rate hike. This distribution suggests that the latest inflation data could directly alter expectations for the rate path.

Meanwhile, the US July employment report shows a decrease of 23,000 non-farm jobs for the month, continuing to raise concerns in the market about economic momentum. Amid slowing growth and unclear inflation, investors are becoming more cautious in their policy judgments.

If Inflation is Soft, Risk Assets May Find Support

A survey of 15 banks by The Wall Street Journal predicts that the overall US CPI for July will rise by 0.12% month-on-month and increase to 3.4% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.22% month-on-month.

HSBC expects that the July inflation data may continue to remain moderate. If this assessment holds true, US Treasury yields may decline, and market bets on further rate hikes will also cool, providing a relatively friendly environment for stocks and crypto assets.

Oil Prices Remain a Short-Term Disturbance Factor

Recent fluctuations in oil prices have also made the inflation outlook more difficult to assess. Previously, negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz were temporarily stalled, pushing the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond up to 4.682%. Subsequently, as progress was reported in negotiations between Oman and Iran, oil prices fell back below the resistance range of $85 to $88.

For Bitcoin, the core question at the moment is whether the inflation data can bring about a round of risk appetite recovery or trigger selling pressure again. If the CPI exceeds expectations, the market may reprice the risk of rate hikes, putting pressure on stocks, bonds, and crypto assets; if the data is moderate, risk assets may welcome a short-term breather.

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