Bitcoin Mining Uses 30% of Paraguay's Electric Energy: Crisis Warned for 2029

• The existing supply contracts between ANDE and the mining companies expire in December 2027.
• Experts project a possible power limitation in the electrical system for 2029.

The Bitcoin mining industry absorbs nearly 30% of all the electric energy billed in Paraguay, placing the national grid in front of a structural dilemma of energy planning for the coming years.

According to calculations by energy doctor Victorio Oxilia, the volume consumed by this energy-intensive activity is equivalent to one and a half turbines of the Itaipú hydroelectric power plant. This sustained demand advances the margin of slack in the national electrical system towards the year 2029, under a scenario of moderate growth, provided that favorable hydrological conditions are maintained.

This is where the current negotiation between companies and the state-owned electric company comes into play, as the existing supply contracts between the National Electricity Administration (ANDE) and the mining companies expire on December 31, 2027, without any defined automatic renewal clauses to date. The potential exit of Bitcoin mining companies could represent a setback for the sector.

During the panel "Energy Future: Crisis or Opportunity," energy policy specialist Cecilia Llamosas detailed that mining pays between 48 and 56 dollars per megawatt-hour (MWh), a figure higher than the bar price of approximately 29 dollars per MWh and comparable to the 51 dollars per MWh that Brazil pays for firm energy from Itaipú, including compensation for cession.

Despite representing almost a third of the billed electric consumption, Oxilia indicated that the activity contributed 0.24% to the Gross Domestic Product in 2024. In contrast, Gabriel Lamas, director of Hive Technologies in the country, estimated that ANDE's revenues from the sector will reach 350 million dollars by the end of 2026, which is equivalent to 60% of the state company's revenues from the sale of surplus energy.

From an operational perspective, both Llamosas and Lamas explained that the loads from Bitcoin mining act as an interruptible supply that disconnects during periods of maximum residential demand, allowing the infrastructure to be amortized throughout the day. However, the tariff adjustments of between 9% and 16% applied by ANDE, along with regulatory uncertainty, have driven a reduction in the number of legal companies from 71 to 41 in the last year, concentrating 730 megawatts in four corporations.

This gradual exit jeopardizes the international position that the country reached in October 2025, when it concentrated 4.3% of the global computing power of the Bitcoin protocol, according to data from Hashrate Index.

In light of this scenario, the government is considering redirecting electrical capacity towards artificial intelligence data centers, supported by proposals such as a 200 million dollar investment project announced by Taiwan. However, Luis Benítez, secretary of the Paraguayan Society of Artificial Intelligence, warned that Paraguay lacks the necessary fiber optic infrastructure and international connectivity to compete in high-density data processing.

With generation offers stalled except for the Aña Cuá works --- which will contribute 135 megawatts with accumulated delays --- the lack of regulatory definitions before the expiration of 2027 threatens to cut ANDE's revenues. If agreements are not renewed or the technological transition is not realized, the loss of billing could lead to an increase in residential tariffs or greater public debt to sustain the national electrical system.

Without the required infrastructure or signed contracts with sector firms, the transition aimed at maintaining state revenues remains in suspense.

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