BTC Trading Sideways, Altcoin Hits New Low: Has the Bull Market Ended? | Trader's Insight

After Trump took office, there was no significant policy promotion in the cryptocurrency market, except for the family's WLFI fund constantly buying coins. There were also some scandals, with rumors of a possible "conspiracy market-making relationship" with project teams; Trump's son made a bullish call to buy ETH, and the fund was suspected of quietly selling off ETH. The Trump administration's pressure on the SEC to cut interest rates also had no effect, and government institutions such as the established cryptocurrency committee were all talk and no action.

Related reading "Is Trump Still Good for the Crypto Market?"

Instead, it was the Trump administration's macroeconomic policy of a strong dollar and weak stock market that had a huge impact on the cryptocurrency market. The back-and-forth moves of imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and then postponing the cancellation made the cryptocurrency market extremely turbulent. Even more deadly was that when BTC rebounded, altcoins "fell with no rise," and most altcoins hit near two-year lows.

Many people are now wondering: Is the bull market still on? In this cycle, the current situation of the Trump-named meme coin creating a myth of getting rich overnight leads to the call for an "eternal bull market" with Trump in office, reminiscent of the previous bull market with the SHIB myth and Coinbase listing, collectively shouting the end of the "eternal bull market." Is the bull market really still on? Is there still a "day to escape" for altcoins? Let's take a look at the traders' views.

Technical Analysis

@Xbt886

The liquidity of altcoins has not yet returned, and more altcoin liquidity has opted to enter BTC's liquidity.

The two previously acknowledged possible paths now seem to have taken the second one.

@YSI_crypto

Around $92,000 is the green area I drew in my chart. This area belongs to the lower boundary of the box within the entire box range. If the price bounces here, it can serve as an entry point with a stop-loss below the box. Currently, this area is within the middle of the box, making it tough for both longs and shorts, waiting for a suitable entry opportunity.

@Patrade_Buer

BTC has completed the plunder of eqh. Bears, please watch your positions, while bulls focus on pullback buying opportunities.

@CryptosLaowai

Bitcoin is in a ranging market. The market logic is to find liquidity: where the most stop-losses and liquidations are, Bitcoin's daily chart has formed two long-legged dojis, increasing the likelihood of a rise next week. There is still a possibility of one last dip in the short term, dropping to around 94,600, then if it bounces back above 95,600+, the uptrend will begin. If there is a rally next week, the minimum target is 100,500, and the maximum is 103,000.

Data Analysis

@Andre_Dragosch

The largest situation of BTC withdrawal from exchanges since 2024 just occurred, with over 17,000 BTC leaving exchanges, 15,000 of which were moved from Coinbase. Many whales bought bottom chips here.

@Phyrex_Ni

Indeed, there was a cliff-like drop in the exchange's BTC reserves after the price fell below $100,000, almost reaching a nearly six-year low, spanning two epochs. This indicates that more investors are choosing to hold and observe after buying in.

Macroeconomic Analysis

@Phyrex_Ni

Just released the non-farm payroll data. It was mostly in line with expectations, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate back to 4%, lower than the previous value. This data is not very good, indicating that the current labor market is still strong. The decrease in non-farm employment was quite significant, well below expectations, which is somewhat positive. Wage growth is also on the rise. Overall, there is no clear cooling in the entire labor market, which may not align with the expectations of some Fed officials. However, it also demonstrates the strength of the U.S. economy.

The possibility of a rate cut in March is almost non-existent, as it was originally. The current labor data will further diminish the probability of a March rate cut, as it is well within the market's expectations. Let's focus on the dot plot for March. Frankly, current macro data is of limited help to the market.

After all, as Powell himself said, the focus on the labor market is not as significant. Let's continue to monitor inflation data, especially housing inflation. In general, today's labor data is good for the economy but not conducive to the Fed increasing the number of rate cuts.

Following the data release, Fed's Kashkari made a statement, with the main content echoing Powell's views, stating, "If we see solid inflation data and the labor market remains strong, this will lead me to support further rate cuts." Interestingly, this view is completely different from yesterday's statement by Logan, who believed that a strong labor market is a good thing.

The decline in inflation is mainly attributed to housing inflation. Kashkari said, "If inflation declines, I see no reason to keep rates unchanged." He also expects inflation to continue to decline, and Fed rate cuts will proceed gradually.

Essentially, the labor data has been categorized, especially as the labor data is favorable to the economy, moving further away from a recession.

@MaoShu_CN

Firstly, after a week, BTC's market cap has remained relatively stable, but the market and #ETH altcoins have shrunk. A clear shift in dominance can be observed through the percentage changes, with BTC's dominance significantly draining the market, now exceeding 58% and approaching 59%, while ETH's dominance has plummeted below 10%, a pitiful sight.
In terms of trading volume, aside from BTC maintaining a certain level of activity, ETH and altcoins have seen a continued decline in activity, with poor sentiment prevailing.

There has been a significant increase in funding this week, with funds increasing by 8.9 billion. The total supply of stablecoins on exchanges is 231.5 billion US dollars.

USDT: The official website shows a current market capitalization of 141.355 billion, an increase of 19.51 billion compared to last Sunday. The Asian and European markets saw inflows this week, leading to an increase in overall inflows.

USDC: Data sources indicate an increase in funds of 2.817 billion, with inflows also observed in the US market.

Following the release of employment data, BTC rebounded as the US stock market opened. However, concerns about inflation expectations triggered a risk-off sentiment in the market, leading to a potential bearish end to the week. The price is currently still in a weak position!
After tonight's employment data release, despite the data not being positive news, considering that the bearish trend of this week has mostly cleared, as long as it is not negative news, it will trigger another market rebound.
The market sentiment post data release also reflects this, with short-term BTC price breaking through the 1-hour/4-hour range.
However, the subsequent University of Michigan inflation expectations triggered concerns about market inflation, causing a decline in the US stock market and BTC, interrupting BTC's rebound and maintaining its weak position.

@CryptoPainter_X

The unemployment rate has decreased, non-farm payrolls are lower than expected, and traders are betting on a rate cut recovery point, which is currently stuck around June of this year and does not seem very stable. This means there is no need to wait for a rate cut in the 1st or 2nd quarter, and the earliest we could see it would be the mid-June interest rate meeting.