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    3. Crypto: A macro bomb is coming Wednesday, the market braces for shock

    Crypto: A macro bomb is coming Wednesday, the market braces for shock

    By: rootdata|2026/08/10 16:00:00
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    The crypto market is entering a high-tension week. On Wednesday, August 12, the United States will release its inflation data for July. The consensus expects an annual CPI of 3.4%, down from 3.5% previously. A surprise of a few tenths could be enough to shake Bitcoin, Ethereum, and risky assets by abruptly changing expectations around the Fed.

    In brief

    • The U.S. CPI for July will be released on Wednesday, August 12.
    • The market expects an annual inflation rate of 3.4%, down from 3.5% previously.
    • A surprise could trigger significant volatility in Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.

    The CPI on Wednesday could shift the crypto market

    The U.S. CPI will be released on Wednesday at 8:30 AM New York time. The crypto market is already aware of the power of this event: in July, Bitcoin approached CPI figures around $62,000, with traders positioned for high volatility. This time, the stakes go beyond just BTC. Economists surveyed anticipate an annual inflation rate of 3.4%, slightly lower than the previous 3.5%.

    On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, following a decline of 0.4%. The crypto market is thus expecting a continuation of disinflation, but with a monthly rebound in prices. A figure below expectations could reassure investors. It would reinforce the idea that inflationary pressure is easing without necessitating a new monetary tightening. The dollar and bond yields could then lose ground, creating a more favorable environment for risky assets.

    Conversely, a CPI above forecasts would immediately change the reading. Persistent inflation would bring interest rates back to the center of the crypto market. Bitcoin could then suffer from the dollar's rise, while leveraged positions would become more vulnerable to liquidations.

    The Fed remains the invisible arbiter of crypto volatility

    The release is particularly sensitive following Friday's U.S. employment report. Weaker data has reduced fears of a rapid rate hike and helped Bitcoin rise above $65,000 earlier in the week. ETH and several major cryptos have also benefited from the renewed risk appetite.

    However, the Fed remains cautious. On July 29, it maintained its rates between 3.50% and 3.75%. The market is now trying to determine whether this pause can last or if inflation will force the central bank to become more aggressive again. This is precisely what makes the CPI so important for crypto.

    High rates make bonds and cash investments more attractive. Capital then has less reason to flow into Bitcoin and altcoins. A more dovish monetary outlook generally produces the opposite effect. Geopolitics further complicates the equation. Tensions in the Middle East continue to influence oil prices.

    A new rise in energy prices could fuel inflation expectations and neutralize some of the good news from the labor market. Brent was still trading above $84 on Monday after several sessions of increases.

    Wednesday is just the beginning of a high-risk week

    The CPI will not be the only statistic capable of shaking digital assets. On Thursday, the U.S. will release its producer price index. The market will also monitor unemployment claims. On Friday, retail sales and preliminary consumer confidence data for August will be released.

    The crypto sector will also have its own catalysts. Securitize is set to release its results on Wednesday, while Gemini will announce its results on Thursday. U.S. institutional managers have until Friday to file their 13F forms, which can reveal new changes in their financial positions.

    Thus, Bitcoin's reaction on Wednesday will be more important than the figure itself. A favorable CPI followed by a market unable to progress would indicate that buyers still lack conviction. Conversely, a bad surprise quickly absorbed would send a signal of resilience.

    The crypto market thus faces a major macro test with very little room for error. Energy-related risks remain particularly sensitive, as highlighted by BlackRock's alert on a return of inflation driven by oil. On Wednesday, a few decimals on the CPI could decide whether crypto extends its rebound or plunges back into a new turbulence zone.

    This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.

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    Contents

    In brief
    The CPI on Wednesday could shift the crypto market
    The Fed remains the invisible arbiter of crypto volatility
    Wednesday is just the beginning of a high-risk week

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