Economic Crisis in Turkey: Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Are Not Safe Havens

<< Gold is money. Everything else is credit. >> These statements by J.P. Morgan before the U.S. Congress date back to 1912. More than a century later, Turkey proves him right, almost against its will. Indeed, the Turkish lira plunges to its lowest historical level, the Istanbul Stock Exchange suspends trading, and Ankara orders the liquidation of 131 investment funds representing $18.3 billion. This is enough to push any saver to seek an exit. However, the exit that Turks are actually taking is not what one might think. It is primarily gold and stablecoins that absorb the panic, not Bitcoin. And the nuance, which the IMF itself points out, deserves attention because it changes the way we interpret this entire crisis. Key points of this article:

• The Turkish lira has reached its lowest historical level, leading to the suspension of trading on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the liquidation of 131 investment funds by Ankara.
• Gold has been favored as a safe haven in Turkey, with households and businesses massively holding this precious metal, unlike Bitcoin, which has experienced significant price fluctuations.

Turkey Plunges, Between Turkish Lira and Istanbul Stock Exchange

First, the numbers, because they speak for themselves. The Turkish lira is trading around 48.8 units to the dollar, compared to 41.3 a year ago: an 18% depreciation over twelve months that is no accident. The Istanbul Stock Exchange has lost more than 9% in three sessions in mid-September, with a drop of over 5% in a single day that triggered an automatic suspension of trading. Panic.

The Turkish regulator, the SPK, has cut to the chase by ordering the liquidation of 131 investment funds, $18.3 billion in frozen assets all at once. The key interest rate peaks at 37%, failing to bring down inflation, which still exceeds 30%. From a distance, it looks like a repeat of 2021 and 2023. Up close, it’s worse: this time, it’s the funds themselves that are cracking. Evolution of the USD/TRY exchange rate on TradingView: the Turkish lira reaches a new historical low against the dollar in September 2026.

Gold, the Safe Haven That Delivers

Gold, unlike Bitcoin, does not disappoint when needed. The yellow metal recorded its best annual performance in 2025 since the late 1970s, with over 60% increase, and is trading around $4,380 per ounce in mid-September 2026. Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by the end of the year (September 2), while JPMorgan maintains its target at $6,000 for the same timeframe (June 24).

Turks already know this. According to data from the Turkish central bank, reported by Reuters in February 2026, households and businesses in the country held $600 billion in gold outside the banking system, plus $80 billion held in banks, a tradition so ingrained that the central bank itself refers to gold as << under the pillow >>. This explains the Turkish reflex in the face of inflation, hoarding rather than speculation.

Bitcoin, the Risky Asset That Guarantees Nothing

Bitcoin has experienced its own crisis, thousands of kilometers away from the Turkish lira and unrelated to it. Between September 15 and 17, during a week of voting in the U.S. Senate and the Fed's rate hike to 3.75-4%, the price fell to $76,000, with $300 million in positions liquidated in four hours. It took two days to recover to $81,700, a back-and-forth of over 7% in 48 hours. Nothing to do with Ankara.

The calendar is not in its favor either; September is statistically Bitcoin's worst month since 2013 (-3% on average), which English-speaking traders summarize in one word, << Rektember >>. In February, during the early days of the Iranian conflict, Bitcoin had already lost 12% in 48 hours, down to $72,000, which is 35% below its 2025 highs. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq hovers around 0.88 for the year, and the correlation between Bitcoin and gold dropped to -0.17 in February, according to a market analysis published in June. The two assets no longer tell the same story.

Stablecoins: The Real Crypto Refuge for Turks

This doesn’t mean that Turks are shunning crypto, quite the opposite. The country is even one of the most active markets in the world for digital assets, ranked 11th globally according to the IMF, but with a very different entry profile compared to Western markets: Bitcoin accounts for significantly less of the volumes than in the U.S. or Europe, in favor of stablecoins, these tokens pegged to the dollar that replicate its value.

The International Monetary Fund estimated this in early February in its Article IV report on Turkey: between a quarter and half of Turkish households currently hold some form of crypto asset, a wide and steadily increasing range (IMF, Turkey country report, February 2026, translation).

But the IMF immediately clarifies what this covers: it is mainly stablecoins that attract interest, driven by yields higher than those of bank deposits, and the USDT/TRY pair has recorded spectacular spikes in volatility during previous episodes of political tension in the country. The nuance matters; it is stablecoins that reassure Turks, not speculation on Bitcoin or altcoins.

Ankara does not view this enthusiasm favorably. Since Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared in September 2021 that he was << at war >> against cryptocurrencies, the state has chosen the tax route rather than outright prohibition: law 7518 requires mandatory licensing for platforms, to be obtained by June 30, 2026, and a proposed 10% tax on crypto gains has been under consideration in Parliament since March. Waging war on cryptos, yes, but taking its share in the process.

Turkey is not inventing anything. In Venezuela, where hyperinflation has rendered the bolivar nearly unplayable, Tether's USDT is already serving as a daily backup currency, not Bitcoin. The same logic applies wherever a local currency collapses: residents seek stability, not the promise of doubling their investment. J.P. Morgan was right about gold over a century ago. And while $600 billion of gold sleeps under Turkish pillows, Bitcoin has spent mid-September losing and then regaining 7% in two days due to a Fed decision made thousands of kilometers from Ankara.