ETH Hangzhou On-Site Survey: Has ETH Become a Middle-Aged "Greasy Uncle," With No Hope for a New All-Time High in the Next 3 Years?

Original Article Title: "ETH Hangzhou On-Site Survey: Ethereum Enters Its Middle Age, No Hope for New Price High in Three Years"

Original Article Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

As we stand at the end of Q1 2025, there is no doubt that the most disappointed group in the crypto community is the "E Guardians."

On the one hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to its lowest point in nearly five years since May 2020, with the number standing at only 0.02193; on the other hand, Ethereum's "key figure" — Vitalik — recently engaged in quirky behavior of imitating a cat dance with a robotic dog, which has left many puzzled and sparked dissatisfaction among some members of the Ethereum community.

Now, in the midst of the "Ethereum darkest hour" with the price falling below $1800, the "ETH Hangzhou" event is in full swing, with many developers and Ethereum community members still eagerly participating in various ways in the construction of the Ethereum ecosystem. Odaily Planet Daily conducted on-site interviews with individuals at "ETH Hangzhou" to hear their views on the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.

When "Butt Determines Brain" Has Malfunctioned: 50% of People Hold 10 or Fewer ETH, 40% Hold 100 or Fewer ETH

At the ETH Hangzhou Demo Day, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a rough small-sample survey of the attendees, with a total sample size of around 10 people, among whom:

· Only 1 person has completely divested from ETH;

· 50% of the people hold between 1-10 ETH;

· 40% of the people hold between 10-100 ETH.

It is worth mentioning that @Solomon_NAHHH, who divested from ETH long ago, mentioned that he had completely divested from ETH a year ago and some of his position is now in SUI; @0x Benniee, who holds a small amount of ETH, considers the Ethereum ecosystem to be very abstract; and among those holding less than 100 ETH, @ConstantinGao revealed that he holds a significant ETH short position.

ETH Ecosystem Development Stage: 70% Believe It Has Entered Its Middle Age

In a small-scale survey of 10 individuals, there was a certain consensus on the question of the Ethereum ecosystem development stage. Among them,

· 20% (2 individuals) believe the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its youthful stage;

· 70% (7 individuals) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its middle age;

· 10% (1 individual) believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its old age.

Those holding the first view mainly consider it from a technical roadmap perspective, believing that from the perspective of technical roadmap implementation, the Ethereum ecosystem is still in an early stage, with many technical roadmaps still in the exploration phase; in contrast, those who believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its old age mainly consider it from a tokenomics perspective, believing that in terms of the ETH issuance timeline and token operation stage, the Ethereum ecosystem has entered a more solidified old age stage.

Those who believe the Ethereum ecosystem has entered its middle age stage mainly consider it from the ecosystem development stage perspective. Currently, Ethereum has relatively complete infrastructure construction. Except for the DeFi track, other sub-tracks have been to varying degrees falsified; liquidity flow and major crypto projects still largely consider the Ethereum mainnet or EVM environment as the primary ecosystem.

Probability of ETH Reaching a New Price High: No Hope Within 3 Years, Next Cycle TBD

When asked about whether the ETH price could surpass its previous nearly $4800 all-time high and reach a new high within 1-2 years, almost everyone held a pessimistic attitude, including the "E-Guardian" who entered the space in 2019 and the "ETH Ecosystem Builder" engaged in Ethereum ecosystem DeFi project development.

Overall, regarding the timing of ETH's market price reaching a new high, it can be mainly divided into the following 3 categories:

First category, 2-3 years or possibly sooner. Cryptocurrency KOLs, Day 1 Global Founder @RubyWang, cryptocurrency KOLs, KiteAI CMO @0x Laughing believe that a new ETH price high mainly depends on a new asset issuance method leading the market or a new asset type.

Second category, looking at 5 years or later. Day 1 Global Founder @Starzq believes that it is challenging for ETH to reach a new high solely based on itself, and it can only be achieved through BTC's liquidity overflow or edge innovation in the Ethereum ecosystem. Zhejiang University Blockchain Association @Freya believes that hope may lie in community development or technological breakthroughs.

Category Three, Time Unknown, Mainly Dependent on Application Development. @ArtistZhou, @33357xyz, @WONG_SSH, @0xPhiloA, and others believe that the new ATH of ETH's market price depends on when the L2 sucking ETH will be killed, the landing of technology roadmaps such as Based Rollup, and the mature applications after the NFT players, GameFi players, and even DeFi players who took over the high positions before have all been washed off.

In addition, @Solomon_NAHHH believes that there is also a possibility that the U.S. ETH ETF could achieve a full liquidation sale, taken over by a major Eastern country, which may have a certain impact on reaching a new high.

@ConstantinGao, holding a large ETH short position, points out that the main reason for the current unfavorable ETH price performance lies in the bankruptcy of narratives such as "digital oil" and "world computer". Ethereum has now become a block space leasing business, and after experiencing events such as L2 expansion, it has not only been sucked dry but also further reduced the cost, causing the market to no longer recognize the token's value storage function. In this regard, it is radically different from BTC, which is based on the "digital gold" concept. After abandoning its payment positioning, the market has already accepted its newest positioning.

Furthermore, he mentioned that although he does not have a positive view on ETH's price performance in the short term (2 to 3 years), judging by the past development stages of the Internet industry, Ethereum still has the potential for significant development. Driven by mature applications, its token consumption demand may experience tremendous growth from the early dial-up Internet stage to the short video, live streaming e-commerce stage. By then, the ETH price may gradually reach new highs.

Summary: ETH Is Not Irreplaceable, But It Remains the Main Cryptographic Battlefield

Among the young faces, the author saw that there are still many young faces active in the on-site activities of the ETH ecosystem. Although the ETH price is weak, the ecosystem is highly decentralized, and there are still old leeks and newcomers sticking to the Ethereum ecosystem. As for the price, only time will tell.

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