Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Will Changxin's IPO Ignite AI Trading? Super Week for Central Banks and Tech Giants' Earnings Reports Looming Amid Uncertain US-Iran Situation

On July 26, next week is set to be filled with opportunities and challenges for investors, as the market will encounter a series of pivotal turning points. Among these, the most unpredictable is the US-Iran situation. On one hand, the market anticipates that Trump has a strong motivation for TACO (he halted strikes against Iran on Friday). On the other hand, Israel's provocations and Iran's willingness to negotiate and make concessions will both influence the duration of peace. In the current context of cooling AI trading and shifting macro liquidity expectations, geopolitical conflicts are undoubtedly the best justification for market sell-offs. Therefore, the direction of the US-Iran situation next week deserves investors' attention. Additionally, the leading Chinese memory chip company, which has attracted significant interest from both domestic and international investors, will be listed on the STAR Market on Monday, and the stock's performance post-listing may deeply impact market sentiment towards AI trading.

In summary, the key macro events for next week are as follows:

On Monday, the listing on the STAR Market in China;

On Tuesday at 20:15, the weekly change in ADP employment numbers for the week ending July 11 in the US;

On Thursday at 02:00, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision; at 02:30, the Chair will hold a monetary policy press conference;

On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; at 19:30, the Governor of the Bank of England will hold a monetary policy press conference;

On Thursday at 20:30, the US will report initial jobless claims, the core PCE price index year-on-year/month-on-month for June, and personal spending month-on-month for June;

On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report; at 14:30 on Friday, the Governor of the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy press conference;

At 21:45 on Friday, the US Chicago PMI for July;

At 22:00 on Friday, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for July and the final value of the one-year inflation expectation for July.

Finally, a flurry of tech earnings reports is set to arrive next week. Tech giants will announce their earnings reports on Wednesday and Thursday next week.

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