Mysterious account makes precise bets on airstrikes against Iran, Trump camp embroiled in "insider trading" allegations

According to Jinshi reports, last weekend, due to the closure of global traditional financial markets, a large amount of capital flowed into prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the subsequent impacts of the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran through these platforms. However, this capital frenzy quickly evolved into a public opinion storm.

On Saturday, a wave of skepticism emerged on the social platform X, accusing some insiders of profiting significantly in the prediction markets by leveraging their advance knowledge of military strikes. In response to the criticism, a White House spokesperson argued to the media that "the only special interest guiding the Trump administration's decisions is the best interest of the American people." In fact, actions against insider betting leveraging international conflicts have already been initiated in some regions around the world.

In the face of accusations, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended that they would refund all fees incurred by users participating in the controversial markets, and positions established before Khamenei's death would be forcibly settled at the last trading price. However, this "forced liquidation" decision did not quell the storm; many users instead complained on social media that they had been misled by the platform.