Sberbank Predicts $46 Billion in Cryptocurrency Trading in the First Year at Russia's Regulated Exchange

After the implementation of new regulations, about 20% of trading volume may shift to regulated markets

Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, predicts that in the first 12 months following the implementation of new cryptocurrency regulations on September 1, 2026, the trading volume at domestic regulated exchanges will reach 3.5 to 4 trillion rubles (approximately $46 billion to $54 billion).

The bank expects that most existing cryptocurrency trading will continue through unregulated services for the time being, estimating that only about 20% will transition to regulated exchanges in the first year.

Expected to Expand to Approximately 7.5 Trillion Rubles by 2029

According to Anatoly Popov, Vice Chairman of Sberbank, data from the Russian Ministry of Finance indicates that as of February, the domestic cryptocurrency trading volume was about 50 billion rubles (approximately $922.6 million) per day, reaching about 18 trillion rubles (approximately $33.2 billion) annually.

Sberbank's investment research division, SberCIB Investment Research, assumes that about 20% of the trading volume will transition to regulated exchanges in the first year after legalization, estimating an annual volume of 3.5 to 4 trillion rubles (approximately $46 billion to $54 billion).

SberCIB also believes that trading volumes will continue to increase, potentially reaching 4.75 to 5.25 trillion rubles (approximately $8.7 billion to $9.7 billion) by 2028, and about 7.5 trillion rubles (approximately $13.8 billion) by 2029.

Popov noted that many transactions will continue to occur without going through exchanges, and since market participants have until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses, the market is not expected to fully mature in the next year.

Sberbank to Expand Collateral Loans and Wallet Services

In Russia, the key provisions of the new digital asset regulations signed by President Vladimir Putin on August 4 will come into effect on September 1.

Under the new system, non-qualified investors can purchase approved cryptocurrencies through regulated intermediaries up to 300,000 rubles (approximately $5,500) if they pass a specified screening. In contrast, there are no investment limits for qualified investors.

The Central Bank of Russia has included Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) in its draft list of cryptocurrencies that may be allowed for public trading in regulated markets.

Sberbank plans to offer loans secured by Bitcoin, and potentially Ethereum and USDT, if the central bank permits their general circulation. Additionally, it is working on integrating cryptocurrency wallets into the Sber and Sber Investments apps and developing infrastructure for the storage of digital assets.

The estimated figure of approximately $46 billion represents the anticipated trading volume that is expected to transition to regulated exchanges in the first year following the implementation of the new system, rather than the total size of Russia's cryptocurrency market. Sberbank expects that trading volumes in this regulated market will continue to increase in the future.

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