The AI stock god who made 60 times profit bets 7.7 billion dollars on Nvidia reaching its peak

Author: Bibi News

On May 18, 2026, Situational Awareness LP submitted its Q1 2026 13F filing.

The fund's nominal exposure to U.S. stocks and options expanded from $5.52 billion at the end of 2025 to $13.677 billion, a quarterly increase of 148%.

However, what drew market attention was not the scale, but the structure: over 60% of the new nominal exposure was entirely concentrated in put options on the semiconductor sector.

What Happened in Q1

The put options covered nine underlying assets: VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, Micron, TSMC, ASML, and Intel.

Among them, SMH had the largest nominal size for puts, reaching $2.04 billion, followed closely by Nvidia at $1.56 billion. Micron and TSMC held both call and put options, indicating a bidirectional bet on volatility rather than a one-sided short.

It should be noted that the 13F filing only discloses the nominal value of options, making it impossible to directly assess the net short position. These put positions could be actively shorting or could be hedging against long positions.

The complete intent cannot be restored solely from the filing.

In terms of underlying stocks, the fund continued to increase its stake in computing infrastructure.

CoreWeave's holdings increased from 6.1 million shares to 7.18 million shares; IREN and Applied Digital also increased their stakes;

The expansion in mining companies was the most significant, with Bitfarms (now renamed Keel Infrastructure) increasing from 6.9 million shares to 19.88 million shares, CleanSpark from 1.64 million shares to 12.28 million shares, and Riot Platforms from 6.17 million shares to 11.5 million shares.

Bloom Energy reduced its holdings by 3.59 million shares but still holds approximately $879 million in market value, while retaining 408,500 call options. This is a profit-taking move, not a directional change.

The exit actions were concentrated in the optical communication sector.

Lumentum and Coherent were completely liquidated; last quarter, Lumentum's position accounted for as much as 8.68%, but this quarter it went to zero.

Intel's actions are worth noting separately: last quarter, it held about 20 million call options, which were all liquidated this quarter, while new put positions were established.

This is not just closing positions; it is a complete directional reversal from bullish to bearish.

Where the Bottleneck Is, There Is Money

The logic behind this 13F is a specific supply-demand judgment: the constraints on AI expansion are shifting.

Over the past two years, the core contradiction limiting the scale of AI has been the GPU shortage, leading the market to continuously trade Nvidia, HBM memory, advanced processes, and optical communications. During this phase, the semiconductor sector as a whole received a significant premium.

However, as computing clusters scale up to 100,000 cards or even a million cards, new constraints are emerging.

Grid access applications in the U.S. are currently backlogged by over 2TW, with an average waiting period exceeding five years; transformer capacity is limited, and the construction cycle for new data centers is measured in years; while chip production can continue to expand, the electricity, land, and construction capacity needed to support chip operations cannot keep pace.

Under this judgment, the logic of shorting the semiconductor sector is not that AI will fail, but that the valuations on the chip side have already reflected expectations in advance, and value is migrating toward more downstream physical infrastructure.

Buying puts on SMH and Nvidia is a hedge against potential valuation corrections on the chip side; continuing to hold CoreWeave, mining transformation targets, and Bloom Energy is a bet on the real bottlenecks of electricity and data center capacity.

CoreWeave's actions also confirm this thinking: call options were reduced from 10.81 million to 1.81 million, while common stock increased from 6.1 million shares to 7.18 million shares.

The direction hasn't changed; it has merely swapped high-leverage option positions for common stock, reducing the impact of volatility on the portfolio.

From $225 Million to $13.677 Billion

This fund was established in September 2024, with its first 13F disclosing approximately $225 million in U.S. stocks. By the end of 2025, this figure had grown to $5.52 billion; as of March 31, 2026, the nominal exposure reached $13.677 billion.

In the first half of 2025, the fund achieved a return of about 47%, while the S&P 500 only rose about 6%, outperforming the S&P 500 by about 12.5 percentage points for the year.

Before founding the fund, this 24-year-old German published a 165-page report titled "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," outlining the judgment that AGI timelines, electricity, and computing infrastructure would become the biggest bottlenecks. The fund's early capital came from Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, and Stripe co-founders Patrick and John Collison.

The significance of this quarterly report lies in its transformation of a previously narrative judgment into a concrete position structure.

Semiconductors are merely the entry point for expansion; what truly determines the speed of AI expansion is whether electricity can be connected, whether data centers can be built well, and whether grid access approvals can be obtained within five years.

If this judgment holds, the keywords for AI investment over the past two years have been GPUs and models; in the coming years, they may be electricity, land, and construction time.

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