Bitcoin Just Hit $80,000: Last Week WEEX's Prediction Came True — What's Next?

Updated: August 25, 2026

Bitcoin just did what last week's forecast said it might: it touched $80,000. After a week of accelerating ETF inflows, a major short squeeze, and a Treasury-driven shift in risk appetite, BTC broke through the exact resistance zone flagged in our previous analysis, posting its biggest weekly gain in roughly three years along the way. This piece picks up where that forecast left off — confirming what happened, explaining why this move looks different from a typical squeeze-driven spike, answering the questions readers raised after the last article, and laying out what it would take for Bitcoin to push toward its next resistance band.

Bitcoin Reaches $80,000, Confirming Last Week's Forecast

Last week, WEEX asked Can Bitcoin Reach $80,000 in August? and concluded that the probability of BTC touching that level was increasing, while whether it could hold above $80,000 would depend on ETF inflows, the dollar, and how the market absorbed selling pressure near that psychological round number.

As of August 25, that first part of the forecast has played out. Bitcoin touched as high as $80,908 to $81,257 during Asia trading hours, its first time above $80,000 since mid-May, before settling back to trade around $79,933. The move capped a rally of roughly 23% over the seven days through Sunday, August 23, the cryptocurrency's biggest weekly gain in about three years.

With the first target now confirmed, the question has shifted: is this rally durable enough to hold above $80,000, or even push toward the next resistance zone, or is it the kind of sharp squeeze that tends to fade?

What Actually Drove Bitcoin Above $80,000?

The breakout wasn't a single-day event. It was the continuation of a rally that began the prior week when Bitcoin surged more than 20% in three days, its biggest three-day gain since 2023. Several factors combined to push BTC through the level our earlier analysis flagged as the key resistance zone:

• A U.S. Treasury catalyst: The Treasury's announcement that it would double its purchases of longer-dated government bonds pushed yields lower and improved risk appetite across markets, extending directly into crypto.
• A large short squeeze: More than $4 billion in bearish crypto positions were liquidated as prices climbed, forcing short sellers to buy back BTC and accelerating the move higher. On August 25 alone, over $400 million in total crypto liquidations hit the market, including $160 million in Bitcoin shorts.
• Renewed ETF demand: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.92 billion in net inflows last week, the largest weekly haul since October, when Bitcoin reached its previous cycle peak near $126,000.

Current Bitcoin Price and Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin remains meaningfully below its October 2026 all-time high of roughly $126,000, and spent much of this year trading 40–50% under that record while capital rotated into the AI-driven stock rally instead. This latest move has pulled Bitcoin's year-to-date losses below 10% for the first time since mid-May, but it has not erased the deeper pullback that defined most of 2026.

Why This Rally Looks Different From a One-Off Squeeze

One detail separates this move from a purely leverage-driven spike: traders were actually taking leverage off as the price climbed. Coin-denominated open interest fell from about 353,500 BTC to 312,600 BTC between August 12 and August 23, an 11% drop and the lowest level in at least a month, even as Bitcoin's dollar price rose sharply.

That combination — rising price, falling leveraged positioning — typically signals spot-driven buying rather than a fragile, leverage-fueled bounce. The options market backs this up: 25-delta call volatility has been outpacing puts at every maturity since the breakout, and skew has turned negative on the front end for the first time this year, meaning traders are paying more for upside exposure than downside protection. Fundstrat noted in a Monday client note that the buying following last week's short squeeze suggests the rally "may be more durable than a tactical bounce."

Answering What Readers Asked After Last Week's Forecast

A number of readers pushed back on last week's piece, and it's worth addressing the most common questions directly now that $80,000 has actually been touched.

"Wasn't $80,000 just a round-number magnet that would reject again?" It nearly did — the article noted that Bitcoin had failed to break $80,000 the week prior, with that stall tied to profit-taking. What changed this time was the scale of ETF inflows and the Treasury-driven yield move, which gave the breakout attempt more fuel than the previous failed test.

"Isn't this just another short squeeze that fades in a few days?" Partially, yes — a meaningful share of the move was mechanically driven by liquidations. But the falling open interest and shifting options skew described above suggest fresh spot demand is reinforcing the move rather than leverage alone carrying it.

"Does this mean Bitcoin is back to its October highs?" No. Even after this rally, BTC remains well below its ~$126,000 October peak, and prediction markets and analysts remain split on whether this move extends toward new highs or stalls out at the next resistance band.

What's Next: Can Bitcoin Reach $85,000 or $90,000?

With $80,000 now confirmed as touched rather than merely targeted, the market's attention has shifted to the next resistance band at $88,000–$90,000. Getting there would likely require continued ETF inflows at last week's pace, a market environment where the incoming Fed chair's first Jackson Hole keynote this week doesn't reintroduce hawkish surprise, and $75,000–$76,000 holding as support on any pullback.

Futures markets are currently pricing roughly a 36% probability of a September rate hike, a detail worth watching closely given how directly this rally has tracked Treasury yield moves. Markets will be watching new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole address this Friday for signals on that path.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Bitcoin actually reach $80,000?

Yes. On August 25, Bitcoin touched an intraday high between $80,908 and $81,257 before settling back near $79,933, confirming the breakout that last week's forecast flagged as increasingly likely.

What caused Bitcoin's rally above $80,000?

A combination of a U.S. Treasury announcement to increase long-bond purchases, a short squeeze that liquidated more than $4 billion in bearish positions, and $1.92 billion in weekly spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, the largest since October.

Is Bitcoin's rally likely to continue toward $90,000?

It's possible but not confirmed. Falling leverage and a bullish shift in options positioning support the case for continuation, but the next resistance band at $88,000–$90,000 has not yet been tested, and this week's Jackson Hole commentary from the Fed could swing sentiment either way.

How far is Bitcoin from its all-time high?

Bitcoin remains well below its October 2026 peak of roughly $126,000, even after this rally, meaning the current move is a recovery within a longer drawdown rather than a new record