Companies Profiting from War and Expensive Oil: Analyzing 5 Firms from the Warsaw Stock Exchange and Abroad

War is a tragedy, not an investment thesis. However, the stock market prices the effects of real decisions: larger defense budgets, multi-year contracts, replenishment of ammunition stocks, and risk premiums added to the price of oil. Therefore, defense companies and raw material producers can improve their results in the same environment, although they earn in completely different ways.

In this analysis, we examine five companies from the Warsaw Stock Exchange and foreign markets: Lubawa, Rheinmetall, Saab, Equinor, and ConocoPhillips.

We look not only at the stock price but primarily at orders, margins, cash flows, exposure to raw material prices, and risks. The data is current as of August 12, 2026.

• Rheinmetall and Saab have long-term revenue visibility thanks to record order backlogs, but their stock prices have already risen significantly.
• Lubawa provides exposure to Polish defense orders, but its results are uneven, and a large consortium contract value does not mean the same amount of revenue or profit attributed to shareholders.
• Equinor combines oil and gas production with dividends and share buybacks but remains sensitive to raw material prices and the policies of the Norwegian government.
• ConocoPhillips offers a cleaner exposure to upstream, meaning exploration and production. High oil prices help it perform better than an integrated company, but a drop in barrel prices directly reduces its results.

Remember that this is a watchlist, not five automatic purchases. A strong stock price increase does not prove a high valuation. It is necessary to compare the price with results, cash flows, and forecasts. Table of Contents:

• Why War and Expensive Oil May Support Company Results
  • Lubawa: Polish Exposure to Camouflage and Protective Equipment
  • Rheinmetall: European Leader with a Record Order Portfolio
  • Saab: Defense Technology and Strong Portfolio from Poland
  • Equinor: Oil, European Gas, and Cash Returns
  • ConocoPhillips: Direct Exposure to Production
• Oil vs. War
  • Who Really Benefits from Expensive Oil?
  • What Happens If the War Ends?
• Three Scenarios for Oil Prices
• Defense or Oil Companies? What to Choose? {#inside-nav}

Why War and Expensive Oil May Support Company Results {#1}

In the defense sector, the mechanism starts with the state budget. The government allocates more funds for armaments, signs a contract, the producer increases capacity, and the order goes into the portfolio. Revenue and cash appear later, sometimes after several years. The most important thing is the conversion of political declarations into profitable production, not just the headline about a new war.

In June 2025, NATO countries adopted a goal of spending up to 5% of GDP on defense and security by 2035. Of this, 3.5% of GDP is to address basic defense needs, and up to 1.5% of GDP for infrastructure, resilience, and related investments. This is a political declaration spread over years, not money paid to producers immediately. Nevertheless, it extends the planning horizon. The NATO summit declaration in The Hague is more important here than a single news item from the front.

The European Commission, in its Readiness 2030 plan, indicated the possibility of mobilizing up to €800 billion for defense. This amount includes, among other things, SAFE loans and additional fiscal space for states. This is not a single fund ready to be distributed among listed companies. However, it shows the scale of the shift in priorities. The European Commission describes the Readiness 2030 instruments.

In oil, the mechanism is shorter. The producer sells a barrel at market price, and a large part of its costs is relatively fixed in the short term. Therefore, an increase in raw material prices can quickly enlarge margins and cash flows. It also works the other way around. An oil company has less visibility than a producer with a multi-year contract, but feels price changes more quickly.

If you want to better understand the impact of inflation, interest rates, commodity inventories, and central bank decisions on valuations, the CrypS.pl guide on how to read macroeconomic indicators will be useful.

How Did We Select Five Companies?

We did not look for companies that only fit a description of activities. Each company had to meet at least three conditions:

• have direct exposure to defense spending or the price of oil and gas;
• publish data allowing for the assessment of orders, production, margins, or cash flows;
• be available on a large, regulated market;
• have a clear catalyst for the years 2026 and beyond;
• bring a different risk profile to the table.

This is not a ranking from best to worst investment. These are five different ways to gain exposure to one of two trends.

Lubawa is a small company listed on the GPW, Rheinmetall and Saab are major beneficiaries of European orders, Equinor combines oil with gas, and ConocoPhillips provides more direct exposure to upstream. Figure 1. Comparison of business models, catalysts, and main risks. Developed by CrypS.pl based on company reports.

Lubawa: Polish Exposure to Camouflage and Protective Equipment {#2}

Lubawa is the smallest company in the comparison and the only one listed on the GPW. The group produces, among other things, camouflage systems, tents, protective equipment, and solutions for uniformed services. This allows it to benefit from the modernization of the Polish army, but its results are more volatile than those of global corporations.

The strongest catalyst is the consortium agreement for the supply of masking and simulation systems for the Wisła II program. Lubawa's current report states a value of approximately 586 million PLN net. Care must be taken with the interpretation here.

The total value of the consortium agreement is around 586 million PLN net. Lubawa SA is entitled to invoice the full amount of the completed order on behalf of the consortium. However, this does not mean 586 million PLN in unit revenues for Lubawa SA or such an amount in profit. The exact division of work and revenues between Lubawa, its subsidiary Miranda, and the Military Institute of Engineering Technology has not been disclosed.

In July 2026, the company also announced a contract for a mine reconnaissance set. The guaranteed value is 25.409 million PLN net, and the option could double the amount to 50.818 million PLN. However, the option is not a certain order. Meanwhile, in the Narew program, Lubawa signed a letter of intent. A letter of intent is not a signed contract.

On the results side, the picture is less straightforward. According to estimated unit data for the first half of 2026, revenues amounted to 62.2 million PLN, and net profit was 4.3 million PLN. A year earlier, these figures were 150.1 million PLN and 28.9 million PLN, respectively. The management explained that the first half of 2025 was record-breaking and characterized by unusual seasonality -- a significant portion of deliveries was realized at the beginning of the year.

The data is estimated and unit-based, so it should not be mixed with the consolidated results of the entire group. Chart 1. Daily closing price of Lubawa over a 24-month period. Source and methodology are on the chart.

Contracts create potential, but the investor must keep an eye on converting orders into cash. The share price increased by 202.8% during the studied period. Such a strong movement does not determine whether the shares are expensive, but it increases the importance of comparing capitalization with results, cash flows, and the value of contracts attributable to Lubawa itself. The main risks are the concentration of public orders, irregular quarters, working capital, low liquidity of shares, and the possibility of margin disappointment.

If this were to be your first stock purchase on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, it is worth first reading the CrypS.pl guide: how to start investing on the GPW ***.

Rheinmetall: European Leader with Record Order Portfolio {#3}

Rheinmetall is the most obvious beneficiary of European rearmament in this context. It produces ammunition, weapon systems, vehicles, electronics, and air defense solutions. The scale gives it an advantage but also requires huge investments in factories, inventories, and supply chains.

In the results for the first half of 2026, the group reported €5.227 billion in sales, representing a 39% year-on-year increase. The operating profit rose by 74% to €786 million, and the operating margin reached 15.0%. The order backlog increased from €56.0 billion to €80.5 billion. This provides multi-year visibility for factory work, but the backlog is not cash.

This is best seen in the cash flows. The operational free cash flow in the first half of 2026 was minus €1.616 billion. The company pointed to factors such as the shifting of advances, rising inventories, investments, and receivables.

The company lowered its annual sales forecast by €300 million due to the complete cancellation of the F126 frigate program by the German government and now expects sales in the range of €13.7–14.2 billion with an operating margin of around 19%. Chart 2. Daily closing price of Rheinmetall over the past 24 months. Source and methodology are provided in the chart.

The stock price increased by 114.8% during the examined period. The price increase alone does not prove that the shares are overvalued. However, it shows that before purchasing, one must compare capitalization with profit, cash flow, and portfolio execution rate. Other risks include contract execution, delays in government programs, cost pressures, dependence on export permits, and large capital needs.

Saab: Defense Technology and Strong Portfolio from Poland {#4}

Saab is associated with the Gripen fighter jet, but its operations are broader. They include radars, command systems, anti-tank weapons, sensors, underwater solutions, and aviation. This is important because the increase in defense budgets does not pertain to just one type of armament.

In Q2 2026, orders amounted to SEK 68.393 billion compared to SEK 28.403 billion a year earlier. The quarter included a contract for Polish submarines worth SEK 47 billion. Sales grew organically by 29.8% to SEK 25.453 billion, and EBIT rose by 41% to SEK 2.794 billion. The EBIT margin was 11.0%. By the end of June, the order backlog reached SEK 318 billion.

Saab not only has a lot of orders but also a wide range of products that fit European priorities. At the same time, large government contracts can shift revenues and cash between quarters. The operational cash flow in Q2 2026 remained slightly negative at minus SEK 62 million, although it improved from minus SEK 1.136 billion a year earlier. Chart 3. Daily closing price of Saab over the past 24 months. Source and methodology are provided in the chart.

Saab's shares gained 176.3% during the examined period. After such a move, an investor should check whether the growth in profit and cash is keeping pace with the increase in capitalization. The change in price alone does not provide an answer. The main risks include delays in large programs, the exchange rate of the Swedish crown, export limits, and the costs of rapidly increasing production.

Equinor: Oil, European Gas, and Cash Returns {#5}

Equinor is state-controlled and has significant exposure to both oil and the European gas market. This distinguishes it from a pure oil producer. Gas can stabilize the portfolio but increases dependence on weather, storage, infrastructure, and European energy policy.

In Q2 2026, the adjusted operating result was $11.48 billion, net profit was $4.84 billion, and cash flow from operating activities after taxes was $7.68 billion.

Production increased by 3% to 2.165 million boe per day. The realized price of liquid hydrocarbons was $97.9 per barrel. The company declared a dividend of $0.39 per share for the quarter and expected share buybacks of up to $3 billion throughout 2026. Chart 4. Daily closing price of Equinor's ADR in USD over a 24-month period. Source and methodology are provided on the chart.

The management states that the portfolio is designed to remain cash neutral after investments at an oil price of around $50 per barrel. This is a useful guideline, but it is not a guaranteed profit threshold for shareholders. Taxes, exchange rates, gas prices, expenditures, and project timelines can affect the outcome.

Equinor's ADR price increased by 45.5% during the examined period, excluding dividends. The main risks include falling oil and gas prices, higher expenditures, taxes, state interventions, and project issues. The advantages remain the scale, low-cost reserves on the Norwegian shelf, and the ability to allocate cash between investments, dividends, and share buybacks.

ConocoPhillips: Direct Exposure to Production

ConocoPhillips focuses on the upstream segment. It does not have a large refining business that could partially offset production results in a weaker oil environment. This is a simpler exposure to commodity prices, but also greater sensitivity to price declines.

In Q2 2026, the company reported $3.9 billion in reported profit and $4.0 billion in adjusted profit. Cash flow from operations was $7.4 billion, and excluding changes in working capital, the company reported $7.2 billion in cash flows from operations after excluding changes in working capital. Expenditures and investments reached $3.0 billion, and $3.0 billion also returned to shareholders.

The average realized price was $62.33 per boe, which is 36% higher than the previous year. Production fell by 4% after adjusting for closed acquisitions and asset sales, mainly due to the impact of the conflict on operations in Qatar and higher royalty burdens in the Surmont project.

The company declares over 20 billion boe of resources with a supply cost not exceeding $40 per barrel. This is its own long-term planning metric. It should not be equated with a simple oil price, where every quarter will be profitable. ConocoPhillips describes the methodology in scenario analysis. Chart 5. Daily closing price of ConocoPhillips over a 24-month period. Source and methodology are provided on the chart.

The shares gained 14.4% during the examined period. A smaller increase than in the defense sector does not automatically mean a better opportunity. ConocoPhillips faces risks from oil and gas prices, drilling costs, asset integration, environmental regulations, and geopolitical disruptions. On the other hand, a large portfolio of low-cost projects and capital return discipline may improve resilience in a weaker cycle.

Polish and European Context: Orders Do Not End with One Conflict

The most important change in Europe is not that countries are reacting to a single crisis. It is about rebuilding capacities that have been constrained for years. Ammunition, air defense, reconnaissance, logistics, cybersecurity, drones, and infrastructure require long-term programs.

Even a quick ceasefire will not replenish stocks or build factories in one quarter. Therefore, the order books of Rheinmetall and Saab may be fulfilled over the years. Lubawa may also benefit, especially if the domestic Wisła and Narew programs move from declarations to regular deliveries.

However, this does not mean that every producer will benefit. Budgets can shift, governments can change priorities, and European orders can be fragmented. Joint purchasing and standardization favor scale but increase competition for the largest programs.

Oil vs War

Who Really Benefits from Expensive Oil?

The high price of a barrel does not help every energy company equally. The most direct beneficiary is the upstream producer, as the selling price rises faster than part of the costs. ConocoPhillips fits this profile.

Equinor has additional exposure to gas and a larger role for the state. An integrated company with refineries and trading can partially offset weaker production with refining margins. Airlines, chemicals, and transport are on the other side of the transaction, as expensive oil raises their costs.

The price of oil is a variable, not a lasting competitive advantage. A lasting advantage may be low extraction costs, good reserves, balance sheets, access to infrastructure, and the ability to invest without overpaying at the peak of the cycle.

More about the impact of the oil shock on other assets can be read in one of our analyses: oil boosts the crypto market.

What Happens If the War Ends?

This is a key question, as the stock prices of defense and oil companies include a premium for geopolitical tension.

In the defense sector, peace may lower valuations faster than results. The market will reduce the urgency premium, but signed contracts will not disappear automatically. Governments will continue to replenish stocks and modernize equipment. The most resilient should be companies with a broad product portfolio, signed contracts, and production spread across many countries.

In oil, the reaction may be quicker. If the end of the conflict unlocks supply or reduces transport risk, the price of a barrel may fall even before weaker results from producers are published.

For Equinor and ConocoPhillips, it is not just the information about peace that matters, but the impact on physical supply, inventories, and transport routes.

Three Scenarios for Oil Prices

Scenario 1: Oil Remains Expensive

With a sustained geopolitical premium, producers generate high cash flows. Equinor can combine investments with dividends and share buybacks, while ConocoPhillips feels the price increase in upstream faster. The risk is overpaying for new assets and political pressure to tax extraordinary profits.

Scenario 2: Price Returns to Average Range

In such an environment, the cost of extraction wins. Low-cost supply projects continue to earn, but the space for share buybacks and extraordinary dividends decreases. The market begins to differentiate companies more strongly based on balance sheets and project quality.

Scenario 3: Sharp Price Decline

A drop in demand or a rapid return of supply hits cash flows. Companies limit drilling, postpone projects, and reduce capital returns. In such a scenario, the ability to maintain the balance sheet without expensive debt becomes more important than historical dividends.

The International Energy Agency in its Oil Market Report from July 2026 projected a decline in global demand of 1 million barrels per day in 2026 and a decline in supply of 3.7 million barrels per day.

At the same time, it noted that the scenario depends on de-escalation of the conflict and improvement of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a good reminder that a point forecast for a barrel is less useful than analyzing several scenarios.

Major Risks That Are Easily Forgotten

• The stock price does not indicate whether shares are expensive -- A good business can be a bad investment if the price assumes perfect execution of the plan. However, this cannot be determined based solely on the chart. After strong increases in Lubawa, Saab, and Rheinmetall, one must compare capitalization with profit, cash flow, debt, forecasts, and valuations of similar companies. An increase in stock price is a signal to check valuation, not proof of overvaluation.
• Backlog is not revenue -- An order can be postponed, changed, or canceled. It only counts towards the result as it is executed, and the margin depends on costs and contract terms.
• Working capital -- Rapid production growth requires inventory and financing of receivables. Rheinmetall has shown that a record portfolio can coincide with a strongly negative free cash flow in a single period.
• Commodity price -- Equinor and ConocoPhillips do not control oil prices. They can control costs, the pace of investment, and balance sheets, but not global demand and supply.
• Currencies and taxes -- A Polish investor buying shares in EUR, SEK, or USD also bears exchange rate risk. There are withholding taxes on dividends and various settlement rules. The result in PLN may differ from the exchange rate change shown on the chart.
• Politics and regulations -- Defense contracts require approvals, export permits, and budget decisions. Energy companies depend on taxes, emission standards, concessions, and the role of the state. In Equinor, the Norwegian state remains a controlling shareholder.

Defense or oil companies? What to choose? {#11}

Defense companies provide better visibility, and their stock prices have risen significantly during the studied period. This is a reason to closely check the price relative to results, but not proof of high valuation. Oil producers are more cyclical, but their cash flows can rise quickly with high barrel prices.

Combining both sectors reduces dependence on a single mechanism, but does not eliminate market risk. We have discussed the principles of combining different asset classes in detail in our guide on portfolio diversification.

How to Organize Your Watchlist

The following order is qualitative. It takes into account four criteria: revenue visibility, strength of supporting sources, ability to convert sales into cash, and clarity of main risks. This is not a ranking of expected return rates.

1. Rheinmetall has the strongest revenue visibility and scale, but also significant cash needs. The 114.8% increase in share price emphasizes the importance of a separate analysis of valuation metrics.
2. Saab combines a broad portfolio of technologies with record orders, including a large contract from Poland. After a 176.3% increase in share price, it is necessary to check if profit and cash are growing fast enough relative to market capitalization.
3. Equinor offers exposure to oil and European gas, along with a clear capital return policy. However, it remains a bet on commodity prices.
4. ConocoPhillips provides the most direct exposure to upstream and has a large portfolio of low-cost resources. A weaker oil price will quickly impact free cash flow (FCF).
5. Lubawa has an interesting access to Polish defense programs but requires the most careful reading of reports on consortia, options, and individual results.

The order reflects the strength and clarity of the business thesis. Before making a decision, investors should also compare valuation metrics, debt levels, consensus earnings, and their own investment horizon.

The analysis utilizes current and periodic reports from companies, documents from NATO, the European Commission, and the IEA, as well as daily market data from Yahoo Finance. The price data covers the period from August 12, 2024, to August 11 or 12, 2026, depending on the market. Rates of change are calculated based on the first and last available unadjusted closing price. For Equinor, the ADR listed in USD was used.

This material is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, legal advice, or tax advice. Shares of defense and resource companies can be highly volatile, and investors may lose part or all of their capital.