Corporate Buybacks Restart: Will Wall Street's Biggest Buyers Press the Buy Button?

With limited new stock supply, the balance of supply and demand clearly tilts towards buybacks, providing strong technical support for U.S. stocks.

Written by: Zhang Yaqi, Wall Street Insights

The most important structural buyers in the U.S. stock market are gearing up. As the earnings report season lifts the buyback blackout period, the corporate buyback window is quickly reopening. This core demand force that has long supported U.S. stocks is set to make a strong return under this year's record authorization scale.

According to Goldman Sachs, currently only 12% of S&P 500 companies are in an open buyback window, but by the end of this week, another 22% will exit the blackout period. Since October, corporate buyback activity has been about 40% lower than the average level from the beginning of the year, indicating that the long-suppressed corporate purchasing power is facing a concentrated release window.

The context of this demand return is particularly crucial: as of 2026, the total corporate buyback authorization has reached a record $1.305 trillion, far exceeding the $1.151 trillion in 2025 and previous historical peaks. Meanwhile, the supply of new stocks in the market is quite limited, with the supply-demand pattern clearly favoring buybacks.

Buyback Blackout Suppresses Buying Pressure, Window Opens to Release Pressure

The buyback blackout during earnings disclosures has temporarily sidelined this key market buyer. According to Goldman Sachs, corporate buyback activity since October has been about 40% lower than the daily average for the year, creating a significant gap. As the blackout restrictions are gradually lifted, the market expects corporate buying demand to quickly return to normal levels.

Goldman Sachs' buyback trading desk shows that currently only 12% of S&P 500 companies are in an open buyback window, with another 22% set to exit the blackout restrictions this week. This means that in the coming days, substantial forces will re-enter the market to fill the previously persistent gap in corporate buying.

Record $1.305 Trillion Authorization Ammo Ready to Fire

The potential scale of corporate buybacks has never been so large. According to Goldman Sachs' Ranganath team, as of 2026, the total corporate buyback authorization in the U.S. has reached $1.305 trillion, an increase of about 13% compared to $1.151 trillion in 2025, significantly surpassing any previous historical peak.

This record authorization scale means that as we enter the year-end phase, companies have an unusually ample reserve of actual buyback ammunition. And this is not just at the authorization level—S&P 500 companies' actual buyback amounts in the first half of 2026 increased by 15% year-on-year, with the growth rate in the second quarter accelerating further to 20%, indicating a continued strengthening of execution.

Only $5.2 Billion in New Authorizations Last Week, Large Announcement Wave Expected

Currently, the market's attention to buybacks has not yet been fully reflected in the news flow. According to Birinyi data, only 5 new buyback plans were announced last week, totaling about $2 billion, which is considered low.

However, this situation is expected to change soon. As more companies complete their earnings reports and exit the blackout period, the market anticipates a wave of large buyback authorization announcements in the coming days, significantly increasing related news flow, which may further enhance market awareness of corporate buyback scales.

Limited New Stock Supply, Supply-Demand Balance Tilts Towards Buying

The market had previously expressed concerns about potential increases in stock supply, but Goldman Sachs' assessment is relatively optimistic. Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2027, the scale of U.S. stock issuance is expected to be less than 1% of the Russell 3000 market capitalization, posing limited dilution pressure on the market.

This means that while demand driven by corporate buybacks continues to expand, the market does not need to deal with significant supply shocks. The relative strength of buyback demand is therefore further bolstered. From a structural perspective, this is a combination of strong demand and limited supply, providing powerful technical support for U.S. stocks from the corporations themselves.